This 2026 NFL Draft class is considered relatively weak, and part of the reason why is the lack of quarterback prospects that grade out as potential franchise cornerstones. Fernando Mendoza is pretty clearly the top quarterback prospect in the 2026 draft class, and it seems all but official that he will be the first player to hear his name called when the Raiders make the first overall pick on Thursday night.
However, after Mendoza, the draft is pretty wide open. That said, I expect the unknown to turn into teams waiting at the QB position. There really aren’t any other quarterbacks that I’d anticipate a franchise going out of its way to use a first round selection on in this class, with plenty of other positions running deep with players that grade out as much better overall football players than the QBs we’ll see selected after Mendoza.
There’s really only one other quarterback getting any kind of first round discussion in this draft, and that’s Ty Simpson for Alabama. Once in the discussion as potential No. 1 overall picks, names like Carson Beck and Garrett Nussmeier have slid to clear cut mid-round picks. DraftKings Sportsbook has odds set on the number of QBs to be selected in the 1st round at 1.5, which feels like basically a yes/no market on Simpson hearing his name called on Thursday.
Simpson’s draft position prop on DKSB is set at 24.5, but with heavy -330 juice to the over. Simpson really struggled down the stretch of the college football season, and while he might’ve had an arm injury to blame, he was still on the field making awful decisions — just go back and watch the SEC Championship against Georgia or the College Football Playoff against Indiana.
Simply put, I do not see Simpson as a first round pick. But my analysis doesn’t matter, it’s what NFL General Managers think. According to most trustworthy mock drafts, the majority of them do not have Simpson being selected in the first round. Yet we can still get plus-money on UNDER 1.5 QB selected in the first round of the draft. I’ll say that Mendoza is the only quarterback to hear his name on Thursday night, with teams looking to grab Simpson early on Day Two.
NFL Draft Bet: Total QB Drafted in 1st Round UNDER 1.5 (+100)
