The Play-In games have been particularly good this season, but we all know we’re waiting for the real thing to get started on Saturday afternoon. That’s when the top 16 teams in the league will start the two-month long battle for supremacy: An NBA Championship.
As you can imagine, there’s hundreds of bets and props available for each of the eight first round series on the DraftKings Sportsbook, so we at DraftKings Network are trying to make your life a little easier. Let’s go series-by-series — for the six matchups we currently have — and pick out some winners.
For full and in-depth breakdowns of each series, be sure to click on the links!
No. 4 Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Raptors
Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 Games (+105)
Exact series score gives you a bit of a boost, but picking between 4-1 and the sweep is tough. Instead, I’ll split the difference and take the plus value on Cleveland handling this series before it heads back to Toronto. I’m a believer in the Cavs starting group and in Kenny Atkinson as the kind of coach who can press the right buttons when needed. Don’t get lost in James Harden/Donovan Mitchell playoff narratives just yet; this team will look like world-beaters in the first round.
Series Correct Score After 3 Games: Cleveland Cavaliers 3-0 (+205)
Another way to get value on the Cavs is by hitting the three-game line. I fully expect Cleveland to take control of this series from the jump; James Harden and Donovan Mitchell are often at their best early in the series, before game plan adjustments can be made. The Cavs will head back to Toronto after taking care of business at home and put the beat down on them in Game 3 to all but end this series. Don’t be surprised to see a sad atmosphere for Game 4 in the Six. — Charlie Cummings
No. 3 Nuggets vs. No. 6 Timberwolves
Denver Nuggets Series Spread -1.5 Games (-155)
It’s difficult to find value in the Nuggets winning this series. But with the way they’re playing, I have a hard time believing the Timberwolves can keep this close. The loss of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a Most Improved Player favorite, looms large over this team. A less-than-healthy Anthony Edwards is rough. Denver is closer to the Thunder and Spurs than they are to the rest of the West, and it will show in this series.
Series Correct Score After 3 Games: Denver 2-1 (+105)
If Minnesota wants to throw an upset in this series, they’re going to need to come out swinging. And I believe they can do that, or at least manage to win their first home game if they go down 2-0. They need to put Denver on its heels early, or else this is going to end poorly. I still think it ends poorly, but they’ll throw a haymaker early on to give everyone pause. — Charlie Cummings
No. 3 Knicks vs. No. 6 Hawks
Knicks -1.5 Games vs. Hawks (-115)
My best bet for this series is for the Knicks to cover the spread of 1.5 games over the Hawks. While the Hawks have been great since the Trae Young trade, the Knicks are on another level. New York has the best player in the series, Jalen Brunson. While Jalen Johnson might be the second-best player in the series, the Knicks might have the three next-best players after that: Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. This group also has much more postseason experience. For many of these young Hawks players, this will be their first big postseason series. Atlanta has been knocked out in the Play-In Tournament each of the past two seasons. Without Young, there is nobody in this group who knows how to win a playoff series.
Meanwhile, the Knicks have now made it out of the first round each of the past three seasons, including last year’s trip to the conference finals. Atlanta has enough young talent to steal a game or two in the series, but the Knicks should be able to win the series in four or five games. They have more depth, more experience and the home-court advantage. The Knicks are 2-1 against the Hawks this season, and in the lone loss, both Towns and Mitchell Robinson were out, leaving the Knicks incredibly shorthanded in the frontcourt.
Knicks to go undefeated at home in series (+165)
A big part of the reason I’m betting on the Knicks to win this series in six games or fewer is that they should win every game at home. These two bets are obviously correlated. If the Knicks go undefeated at home, they just need to steal one game in Atlanta to cover the game spread for the series. New York has been sensational at Madison Square Garden this season. The Knicks went 30-10 at The Mecca this season, the fourth-best home record in the NBA this season. The crowd should be incredible for this postseason run, but the players are also clearly more comfortable playing in New York. At plus-money, I’ll back the Knicks to dominate at Madison Square Garden during this series. — Blake Krass
No. 4 Lakers vs. No. 5 Rockets
Series correct score: HOU Rockets 4-1 (+290)
The Lakers’ injuries are simply too debilitating to ignore. While LeBron can carry them to a win, doing so four times to advance will be borderline impossible unless he can transform into his vintage self against an elite defense. There’s a reason the Rockets are -600 favorites to win the series, after all. However, there’s essentially no value in that line, so instead we’ll look towards the correct score market.
Houston has far superior star-level talent in comparison to Los Angeles. Durant is an alpha scorer, Sengun is an offensive hub and fellow All-Star, and Thompson brings All-Defense pedigree with some upside as a creator of his own. It’s essentially three-on-one in terms of the top names in the series, and while James is a GOAT, having Ayton and Hachimura as your costars doesn’t feel great. The surrounding talent the Rockets deploy is also much better than that of the Lakers, and with benches thinned, the depth matters slightly less in this context. Houston should roll, even if L.A. steals a game.
Series leading rebounder: Amen Thompson (+500)
This is a longer-shot pick, but I love the value bettors can snag in this series player prop market. The Rockets have plenty of borderline-elite rebounders and the Lakers have a couple of guys who can really elevate in that area of the game, but Thompson jumps out from the rest thanks to his freakish athleticism. In the postseason last year, he pulled down 7.8 boards a night over the course of seven games. We’ve seen him take over on the glass at times throughout his career too, notching 19 games of double-digit rebounds this season and 43 total games of 10+ boards in 148 appearances over the last two seasons. If he locks in for the playoffs, the young star can dominate in this area. — Keagan Smith
No. 2 Spurs vs. No. 7 Trail Blazers
Series Correct Score 4-0 Spurs (+175)
This season should be looked at as a success for the Trail Blazers regardless of how this series goes. But there is a massive gap between these two teams that will be put fully on display. Portland’s offensive struggles are the biggest concern, as San Antonio has a legitimately elite defense with Victor Wembanyama at the helm. The Trail Blazers have done a nice job pushing the pace to get out in transition this season, but the Spurs are capable of matching this. It is tough to talk yourself into a basketball advantage in favor of this Trail Blazers team.
It is tough to beat a team four times in a row. However, there is a youthful personality of this Spurs team that shows up on an every-night basis. Upsets by inferior teams tend to be driven by the more talented team allowing a slip in intensity. Victor Wembanyama has made it clear with his words and play that he will not allow this to happen. San Antonio still plays with a chip on their shoulder on an every game basis and expect them to have the full intentions of making a statement by delivering a series sweep.
Series Leader in Total Points – Deni Avdija (+145)
Victor Wembanyama is the favorite to lead the series in total points at -130 odds on DraftKings Sportsbookopens in a new tab. While he will certainly make his impact felt, the Spurs do not live and die with his scoring output in the way the Trail Blazers do with Deni Avdija. Some of Wembanyama’s best games have been low-scoring performances in which he controls the game defensively. This is made possible because of the depth of San Antonio’s roster, where players like De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, and Devin Vassell are each capable of stepping up as a lead offensive options for stretches.
In contrast, if Deni Avdija is not scoring at a high rate, the Trail Blazers are likely in some trouble as a team. Avdija led the Trail Blazers with 1,598 total points on the season and 25.8 points per game. Toumani Camara is second in total points with 1,100, and Shaedon Sharpe is second in points per game at 20.8. Avdija also led the team with 41 points in the victory in the play-in game, with Jrue Holiday next with 21. The Spurs have a tough defense, but the Trail Blazers’ star is fearless in his attack to the basket and gets a steady diet of free throw attempts to add to his scoring total. It may not come in a winning effort, but expect Avdija to leave it all on the floor and be the clear leading source of offense for the Trail Blazers, beyond what any individual player on the Spurs’ roster. — Sean Barnard
No. 2 Celtics vs. No. 7 76ers
Correct Series Score: Celtics 4-1 (+210)
The Celtics are the clear favorite over the Embiid-less 76ers and Boston should win this series pretty easily. But, the Celtics have a tendency to get ahead themselves at times, and the 76ers stealing one game is realistic. In the Celtics’ six playoff series over the last two years, they have won four of these series 4-1.
Celtics go undefeated in home games (-180)
The most likely outcome I see is Boston gets off to a 3-0 series lead and then, when the team thinks it has it all wrapped up, Philadelphia steals Game 4 at home, most likely thanks to a huge performance from Maxey. Afterwards, the Celtics will head back home and run out the 76ers out of the gym to advance. This season, Boston is 30-11 at home. — Alex Hunter
