We’ve got a 10-game slate for Friday’s MLB action. TGIF!
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $200K Rally Cap [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds, $8,700 — Ryan had one hiccup this season during his second start when he got blasted for five earned runs on nine hits in four innings. In the other three starts, he put up over 20 FPTS in each. The 2.83 FIP is lower than the 3.80 ERA and the strikeout rate is 25.9%. The average exit velocity is 87.5 mph while the hard hit rate is 32.7%. Now he faces a Reds team that is eighth in strikeouts, 26th in wOBA and 25th in wRC+.
Value
Aaron Civale, Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox, $7,400 — Civale has two wins in three starts and the ERA is only 1.72. He’s been very fortunate, though, as the FIP is 4.24, the BABIP is only .186 and the strand rate is an elevated 98.4%. The K-BB% is only 11.3%. Regression is coming at some point, but that doesn’t mean it has to happen on Friday. Especially since Chicago is third in strikeouts, 28th in ISO, 30th in wOBA and dead-last in wRC+.
INFIELD
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, $7,000 — Ohtani. Coors Field. Oh, baby. Through 18 games and 82 plate appearances, Ohtani has five home runs with a .254 ISO. That’s great for most players. Not for Ohtani, who’s had an ISO in the .340 range the last three seasons. It’s only a matter of time before he starts going bonkers. The average exit velocity is 94 mph while the barrel rate is 23.9%. The bat speed is 74.5 mph. Now he gets to face Tomoyuki Sugano, who has a 19% strikeout rate and is allowing a 16.7% barrel rate. Through 16.2 innings, Sugano has been better at home and against lefties, but in his career, lefties have given him trouble and the regression starts today!
Brooks Lee, Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds, $2,700 — I’m not buying the .185 ISO that Lee has put up so far this season, as he has a career .129 ISO and the average exit velocity is only 87.9 mph with a 69.6 mph bat speed. That said, Lee has put up at least 5 FPTS in seven straight with three over 10. The switch hitter has a 117 wRC+ and .241 ISO against left-handed pitching this season in 31 plate appearances. Brandon Williamson is a lefty that has a miniscule 1.5% K-BB% through 15.1 innings. He’s actually been worse against lefties this season but the FIP against righties is still 5.05.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $6,300 — Alvarez is slashing .333/.488/.762 with a .429 ISO through 84 plate appearances. The walk rate is 20.2% while the strikeout rate is only 10.7%. These are video game on rookie level numbers. Now he gets to face Kyle Leahy, who has a 5.01 FIP, -1.6% K-BB% and is allowing an average exit velocity of 93 mph with a 16.7% barrel rate.
Heriberto Hernandez, Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers, $2,800 — Hernandez has been bad, posting a .149/.259/.191 slash with a .043 ISO through 54 plate appearances. He has put up double-digit FPTS in three of the last six games due to the stolen base prowess. In his brief career, Hernandez has a 109 wRC+ and .164 ISO against left-handed pitching. Robert Gasser will be making his season debut. The lefty has 33.2 MLB innings under his belt and posted an 11.2 K-BB%.
