Despite playing in opposite leagues (and in different countries) the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers have something to bond over. Each came close to winning a World Series title in 2025, advancing deep into the postseason, but each ultimately fell to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Still, both teams project to be contenders once again, so it’s perfectly reasonable to call their series, which will continue tonight with a 7:40 p.m. ET meeting in Milwaukee, a potential World Series preview.
Offseason acquisition Dylan Cease will crest the hill for the Blue Jays, while the Brewers will turn to Chad Patrick.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers prediction, preview
Neither of these teams has been particularly impressive to start the season, as each currently sits fourth in its division, but it’s early. Getting swept by the Chicago White Sox and then losing each of the first two in a World Series rematch against the Dodgers certainly isn’t ideal for Toronto, but it’ll eventually get Alejandro Kirk and George Springer back from the injured list and Kazuma Okamoto will figure out MLB pitching. It’d also be a shock if the Blue Jays’ pitching staff finished the season with the fifth-worst ERA in the sport. Milwaukee, too, has been let down by an early-season pitching slump, with Trevor Megill pitching to an almost impossibly high ERA. The Brewers have been bad enough to lose each of their last six games, but they were also good enough to start the season 8-2.
Toronto should have a good chance of picking up a second straight win with Cease on the mound. Cease was the best available free agent starter last winter, having received Cy Young Award votes in both 2022 and 2024, and he’s gotten his Blue Jays career off to a good start, posting a 2.45 ERA through his first three games. He has an impressive advanced statistical profile, ranking in the top quintile in seven different Statcast categories, and he could be in for another strong outing. Though he issues too many walks, which could be a problem against an extremely patient Milwaukee lineup, the Brewers have excelled primarily because they rarely whiff, and he’s ranked in the top decile in whiff rate in five of the past six seasons. They also don’t chase much, but Cease has been consistently excellent at incentivizing ill-advised swings. Plus, Milwaukee was slightly worse at home last season.
Patrick has built off of a strong rookie season by giving up only one run in his first 12.1 innings of work, split between two starts and one relief appearance. His underlying numbers don’t paint such a rosy picture, though; he owns just a 4.29 FIP, and he ranks below the median in every Statcast category besides expected ERA and expected batting average against. Just like he did last season, he’s struggled to induce grounders, neutralizing what was basically Toronto’s only major flaw last season. Additionally, he hasn’t missed many bats in either of his MLB seasons, and the Blue Jays have some of the best bat-to-ball skills of any team in the league, even without Kirk. To be fair to Patrick, Toronto was far worse on the road than it was at Rogers Centre, and while Cease is a better bet to last deeper into the game than Patrick, the Brewers have a more talented bullpen. If Patrick can give up, say, two or fewer earned runs in four or five innings of work, his team should have a chance.
Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7.5 Runs (-108)
Even in his down seasons (like 2025), Cease’s advanced profile is consistently strong, and with his ability to neutralize Milwaukee’s greatest strength, he should be a good bet to keep the score low. Meanwhile, although Patrick hasn’t been quite as good as his raw numbers suggest, the Brewers’ bullpen and defense have pretty consistently been among the league’s best.
Strong Lean: Dylan Cease O16.5 Outs Recorded (-111)
Even though Milwaukee should reasonably be expected to whiff more frequently than usual, the Blue Jays should still expect to face more balls in play than usual, which should allow him to get through the lineup more quickly. He hasn’t reached 17 outs yet this season, but he’s also been extremely unlucky that opponents have hit .387 on balls in play.
