Stephen Curry. Kawhi Leonard. NBA playoff setting. Basketball doesn’t get much better than this.
The NBA’s SoFi Play-In Tournament will continue this evening with its second day of action, as the East’s No. 7 seed will be determined and two West teams will battle it out for the right to play the Phoenix Suns for the eighth seed. Last night, the Charlotte Hornets punched their tickets to face the loser of tonight’s Orlando Magic-Philadelphia 76ers game, and the Portland Trail Blazers jumped the Suns to claim the seventh seed. Both games went down to the wire.
Tonight, the ninth-seeded LA Clippers will host the No. 10 Golden State Warriors at 10:10 p.m. ET, with the winner traveling to Phoenix on Friday evening.
As might be expected in a playoff setting, both teams are relatively healthy, with the Warriors’ Quinten Post (foot) the only player not out for the season who won’t suit up. Additionally, Curry (knee), Kristaps Porziņġis (illness), and Al Horford (foot) will also be on minutes restrictions, though Curry is the only one who might have played “40 minutes” otherwise. The Clippers’ backup center Isaiah Jackson (ankle) is questionable to return after missing the last eight games of the regular season.
LA is a 5.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-205 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 221.5. Golden State is +170 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s win-or-go-home contest.
Kawhi Leonard 42+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-113)
Leonard will end up being named to an All-NBA team for the second time in the three seasons in which the 65-game rule has been in place despite the rule’s intention to penalize players who rely heavily on “load management”, as Leonard infamously does. He might even be named to the First Team. That’s how good he’s been this season; since the Clippers’ 6-21 start, they’ve gone 33-15 in the games he’s played, and he’s averaged 29.0 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game, reaching the 42-P/R/A threshold 19 times overall. He didn’t quite get there in his three games against the Warriors, but he had 24 points, 12 boards, and five assists on January 5.
That game came against a different Golden State team. The Warriors’ season turned around in the third quarter on January 19, when Jimmy Butler III tore his ACL after coming down awkwardly after an entry pass. After that, Golden State collapsed defensively, going just 12-26 in its final 38 games and giving up the 11th-most points, 15th-most rebounds, and eighth-most assists per game. Butler had been Leonard’s primary defender in the teams’ matchups, and he’s had far more success against both Draymond Green and De’Anthony Melton, each of whom could see some time guarding him tonight. The Warriors could be more competitive overall because Curry is back after missing two months with his injury, but that should only help Leonard by keeping him in the game. Curry has had arguably the worst defensive season of his career.
Kristaps Porziņġis 7+ Rebounds (+101)
Porziņġis has been semi-disappointing since arriving in a trade deadline deal with the Atlanta Hawks, averaging 16.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game while appearing in just 15 of a possible 31 games. But he can still impact the game through his size and stretch potential, and at seven-foot-two, he’s six inches taller than any other Golden State player who figures to feature in the rotation tonight. He snagged at least seven rebounds in each of his final four games of the regular season despite not playing more than 28 minutes in any of them, so I expect him to be productive even in limited court time.
Porziņġis has the size and positioning to bother the Clippers, who aren’t good on the boards. LA ranked just 23rd in total rebounding percentage this season, which dropped to 26th after it traded Ivica Zubac to the Indiana Pacers at the trade deadline. Especially if Jackson doesn’t play, the Clippers are extremely thin at center, since rookie reserve Yanic Konan Niederhäuser suffered a Lisfranc injury. Brook Lopez is an awful rebounder for his size; of the 74 players who played at least 58 games, averaged at least 20 minutes per game, and hauled in fewer than four rebounds per game, only Lopez and Jay Huff are seven feet tall.
Kris Dunn 2+ Steals (-102)
Dunn arguably should’ve made an All-Defensive team in 2024-25, but he was ineligible because he only played 20 or more minutes in 53 games. He’s been even better by some metrics this season, surpassing his marks in defensive RAPM, total contests per 100 possessions, and deflections per 100 possessions. He ended the season hot, averaging 1.8 steals per game after the All-Star break and swiping at least two in 19 of his 28 games. Among the 176 players who played at least 20 minutes per game in at least 20 games after the All-Star break, Dunn ranked 12th in steal percentage.
The Warriors, meanwhile, aren’t a very good ball-handling team. Since Butler’s injury, they’ve allowed opponents to rack up the sixth-most steals per game, and while Curry’s absence was obviously a major factor, he coughed up three turnovers in each of his final three games of the regular season. Golden State relies more on ball movement than any other team in basketball, so the relative inexperience of its personnel could prove challenging against a passing lane threat like Dunn. He had two steals in each of the teams’ previous two games, including in the regular season finale on Sunday.
