Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s slate: Oneil Cruz, Ben Rice and Matt Olson.
Let’s break them down.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Ben Rice 1+ Home Run (+244)
It’s getting hard to downplay how good Ben Rice looks to begin 2026. Yankees fans might be a little irrational when it comes to the 27-year-old converted catcher, but this is now two seasons in a row where Rice’s Baseball Savant page is just a sea of red lines. Rice enters play on Wednesday having registered a 100th percentile hard hit rate (70.0%), a 99th percentile expected wOBA (.467) and a 98th percentile expected slugging rate (.680). The man is simply one of the best platoon bats in MLB. It’s that simple.
Rice will get a chance to show off this prowess this evening in the Bronx, as the Angels will send the right-handed Jack Kochanowicz to the mound. Somehow, Kochanowicz has pitched to a 3.24 ERA to start 2026, but I think we all know that the 25-year-old’s 6.08 xERA is more telling. Kochanowicz is a ground ball pitcher by trade, yet his mistakes tend to be big ones, and the few fly balls he does allow usually leave the park. The RHP surrendered 1.70 opponent home runs per nine in 2025, with 17 of the 21 long balls being served up to left-handed bats. Kochanowicz is still giving up barrels. Heck, he’s doing so at a higher rate than last year (12.2%). The home runs will eventually come. Why not tonight?
Oneil Cruz 1+ Home Run (+365)
Here’s the thing: I can’t stop now. I’ve written up Oneil Cruz to hit a home run in the first two games of this series, and he’s yet to make me look smart. But as soon as I don’t pick him, I know he’ll go yard. It’s an age old conundrum. So, we’re back at it for round three. By now, you know that Cruz is a sabermetric monster. He possesses 99th percentile bat speed (78.5), which has translated into 100th percentile average exit velocity (97.1). If he can get a hold of one, it’s leaving the park in a hurry.
Wednesday night presents an amazing matchup, as well. Jake Irvin will toe the rubber for the Nationals, and he’s picked up right where he left off in 2025 after surrendering a league-high 38 home runs. Irvin sports a 7.07 ERA in 14.0 innings and he’s already conceded three long balls. The only other thing to remember about last season? It was LHBs that specifically plagued Irvin. In fact, he gave up a whopping 2.32 opponent home runs per nine within the split. That’s laughably terrible, but great news for Cruz.
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+315)
Allow me to start by just saying that I know.
I know that Chris Paddack is starting this game for the Marlins. I know that Mike Yastrzemski (+572) will likely be hitting fifth in the Braves’ lineup. I know that Yastrzemski is 9-for-23 off Paddack in their careers with three home runs and a 1.353 OPS. If you want to back Yastrzemski in this prop market, I’m not going to stop you. However, let’s also acknowledge that the veteran OF is without a long ball in his first 64 plate appearances of 2026. He’s also sporting a .071 ISO and a 65 wRC+. To me? That’s far more important.
So, instead, let’s bank on Olson going deep. Something that he’s done 189 times since the beginning of 2021 — the fifth-most of any player in baseball within that span of time. Currently, Olson is hitting .313 with a 167 wRC+ against RHPs. Overall, he’s managed a 94th percentile barrel rate (18.8%). He’s just a dangerous bat in an opposite-hand matchup against a pitcher that’s surrendering 1.77 opponent long balls per nine dating back to the start of last season. Seems like a pretty good spot.
