Just when it seemed like the Red Sox might be turning a corner after a tough start to the season, they’ve been humbled in the first two games of this series against the Twins.
On Monday, it was ace Garrett Crochet serving up 10 earned runs in only 1.2 innings of work. On Tuesday, it was the bats being completely unable to get anything going against Mick Abel, in what would eventually become a 6-0 loss. For the year, Boston is now 6-11 and in last place in the AL East.
Can the Red Sox avoid the sweep on Wednesday afternoon? Let’s preview this matinee tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Twins prediction, preview
While very little has gone right for the Red Sox to begin 2026, the team has to be happy with what it’s seen from Connelly Early. The 24-year-old rookie has made only seven starts at the MLB level — eight if you include his outing in the Wild Card series against the Yankees. However, despite that inexperience and youth, Early’s been fantastic so far this season, maintaining a 2.63 ERA and a 2.94 FIP across his 13.2 innings of work. The only red flags? A 13.1% walk rate and a 10.8% opponent barrel rate. Early’s 81.8% strand rate will inevitably regress, which means a few more of those free passes will eventually come around to score. Also, as the weather heats up, those barrels will start leaving the park at a higher clip. Early’s looked good, but he’ll need to clean up those areas a bit before I’m ready to dub him a rock solid major league starter.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Twins have thrived in matchups with left-handed opponents this season. I’ve already mentioned the offensive explosion that occurred in Monday’s 13-6 drubbing of Crochet, but he’s not been this team’s only victim. Minnesota’s 114 wRC+ within the split ranks sixth in baseball, with the likes of Ryan Jeffers and Austin Martin leading the charge. The backstop has a .482 wOBA in his 28 plate appearances versus southpaws, while the former fifth-overall pick seems to finally have found his role as a platoon specialist and utility man. Martin has a .500 OBP when squaring-off with LHPs in 2026.
The Twins will likely need all the run support they can muster this afternoon, as they send their No. 5 starter to the mound in Simeon Woods Richardson. On the surface, Woods Richardson’s been perfectly average in his first three outings of the season, pitching to a 4.60 ERA. That said, the underlying data is a little less kind. Not only is the right-hander allowing an 11.3% opponent barrel rate and 1.72 home runs per nine, but Woods Richardson simply isn’t missing any bats. Across 15.2 innings, SWR owns a fourth percentile strikeout rate (12.3%) and chase rate (18.1%), and he pairs those with an eighth percentile whiff rate (16.7%). It’s a profile the features far too much contact for my liking, and it’s one that the Red Sox should be able to take advantage of.
Red Sox vs. Twins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Red Sox ML (-131)
Early has his own faults, but nothing like the ones Woods Richardson brings to the table. Boston should be able to get to the RHP quickly and build a solid lead to avoid the sweep.
Strong Lean: Simeon Woods Richardson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-154)
I’m a little shocked the line on this prop isn’t set at 3.5, if I’m being honest. Woods Richardson has yet to strikeout five batters in a start in 2026. I’m dubious that today will end with a different result.
