The Charlotte Hornets are in unfamiliar territory on Tuesday night. It has been nearly 24 years since the franchise has been favored in a playoff game, as it as on its home floor against the Miami Heat. The winner of this game will advance to play on Friday night for a chance to be the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference, while the loser’s season will end. That makes this an elimination game, and the Hornets are 0-12 in franchise history in win-or-go-home games.
But this Hornets squad feels different. After a typical sluggish start, Charlotte has one of the best NET ratings in the NBA since the start of January, and has been elite on the offensive side of the ball. The Hornets 33-15 record since January 3 is among the best in the league, and they’ll look to ride that momentum right into the postseason.
The Heat did win the season series against Charlotte this season, 3-1, but the first two meetings came in October and November. The last time these teams squared off, the Hornets put up 136 points and won by 30. That was the start of Miami limping to the finish line in the regular season, going just 5-10 over the last month.
Once among the better defenses in the NBA, the Heat completely fell off, and have been in the bottom-third of the league over that span. It’s easy to point to the playoff and plan-in experience that Miami has, but experience might not be enough against this surging Hornets roster. The Heat are playing their worst basketball of the season, and are facing a team that in current form would clearly be one of the top seeds in the Eastern Conference.
Charlotte has bigs to defend Bam Adebayo, while Miami’s recent struggles on the perimeter defensively plays right into the Hornets’ strength of shooting the ball from deep. I backed the Hornets on the moneyline in a two-leg parlay that also includes the Cavaliers to win on Saturday. Cleveland hosts Toronto in Game 1 of that series, and holds significant advantages. I like the Cavs to grab Game 1 (and win the series relatively easily) with their dynamic backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. The larger advantage likely comes in the paint for the Cavs, who should be able to dominate a Raptors roster that lacks experience in these situations.
The other play I made is for the Hornets to win both Play-In games and get the 8-seed at +160. Beyond this matchup against Miami, the Hornets would then need to go to Orlando or Philadelphia on Friday night. Again, in current form, Charlotte is better than both of those teams. Philly is without Joel Embiid, and the Hornets have beaten the division rival Magic three straight meetings.
NBA Pick: Hornets/Cavaliers ML Parlay (-115)
NBA Pick: To Make Playoffs: Hornets YES (+160)
