25 of the 30 MLB franchises have won a World Series, with the 2023 Texas Rangers being the most recent team to check off their franchise’s first ring. Of the five ringless teams, the Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres have been among the most competitive in recent years, with the Mariners falling just one win shy of their first-ever Fall Classic appearance last fall and the 2022 Padres reaching the NLCS.
They’ll face off at 9:40 p.m. ET to open a three-game series at Petco Park. It’ll be an early-season test to see where these teams — Tier II contenders in their respective leagues — stack up.
Each team will start its nominal ace: Bryan Woo for Seattle, and Michael King for San Diego.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres prediction, preview
Both of these teams were inconsistent to open the season, but each has been hot as of late. The Mariners hit an early-season nadir when they were swept by the Los Angeles Angels, but they bounced back with a sweep over the Houston Astros. The Padres, meanwhile, lost four of their first five games before hitting a stride, taking the finale against the Pittsburgh Pirates and producing a four-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies. Seattle has struggled mightily on offense, ranking seventh-to-last in OPS despite a powerful lineup that features AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh in addition to 2025 All-Stars Julio Rodríguez, Brendan Donovan, and Randy Arozarena, but its pitching has kept it afloat. San Diego, meanwhile, pairs a league-average offense with a top-10 pitching staff, and the Padres’ perennial MVP candidate, Fernando Tatis Jr., has played much better than Raleigh.
Woo has been a major part of that strong Mariners rotation. After finishing fifth in Cy Young Award voting last season, the 26-year-old has a 1.50 ERA through his first three starts, though he took the loss in his most recent outing after giving up three runs (one earned) in five innings against the Texas Rangers. He has an elite statistical profile, combining solid strikeout and walk rates by peppering the zone with four-seam fastballs. Though Woo has struggled somewhat this season to limit fly balls, he’s done a much better job inducing soft contact, which could help him against a San Diego team that leads the league in hard-hit rate. The Padres also too many grounders, and Petco Park is a fairly pitcher-friendly venue, so Woo should be able to limit the damage. Woo had a pair of solid outings against them last season, combining for three earned runs in 12.2 innings of work.
King’s 2025 wasn’t quite as good as Woo’s, but he finished seventh in Cy Young voting in 2024 and had a respectable campaign in 2025, finishing with a 3.44 ERA. He’s off to a similar start this season, pitching to a 3.24 ERA in his first three appearances. However, advanced numbers aren’t as kind to his pitch profile as to Woo’s; he ranks below the league median in all but two Statcast categories this season, struggling to produce chases just like he did last season. Additionally, much like last season, he’s given up too many barrels, which could be an issue against the Mariners, who made solid contact at a top-tertile rate last season. King has also struggled with walks, and despite chasing frequently, Seattle has had among the league’s highest walk rates in both 2025 and 2026. King could keep the game competitive since he had a 2.44 ERA at home last season, but Seattle was also better on the road because T-Mobile Park is even more pitcher-friendly than Petco Park. King could be in for a tough outing.
Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-122)
Underlying metrics suggest that both Woo and King have gotten pretty fortunate this season, but that Woo is the better pitcher, and he’s backed up by the better bullpen. Plus, his strengths line up more with San Diego’s weaknesses than King’s do with the Mariners’. It’s hard to imagine Seattle’s offense (especially Raleigh) continuing to play so poorly.
Strong Lean: Cal Raleigh 1+ Runs (+118)
Big Dumper has had a rough season, but he’s starting to show some signs of life, plating at least one run in five of his last eight games and slashing a (slightly) more respectable .188/.270/.406 in that span. He’s also been significantly less useless against righties than lefties. King likes to throw changeups to lefties, and Raleigh has posted his second-highest xSLG against right-handed changeups.
