The Hornets will host the Heat tomorrow night at 7:30 PM EST. The winner of this matchup will play the loser of Wednesday’s Magic-76ers matchup to claim the eighth seed, while the loser is eliminated. Miami is 3-1 on the season against the Hornets, but Charlotte won their most recent clash by 30 points.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Charlotte is favored by 5.5 points and this game carries a total of 227.5 points.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite player prop bets for Tuesday’s Play-In Tournament matchup between the Heat and Hornets.
Best Heat vs. Hornets Player Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Bam Adebayo U 10.5 Rebounds (-136)
Some of us have been prudently mashing rebounding Under all season long against Charlotte’s opponents, and for good reason. The Hornets have been stifling on the glass this season, allowing a league-fewest 47.9 RPG. They’ve been controlling possessions this way and it’s a big part of their recent surge into playoff contention. They’re also fourth in the league with a 30.5% offensive rebound rate.
While Bam Adebayo is a good rebounder, he’s not elite. He’s averaging 9 RPG over his career and is averaging 10 RPG over his last five games, which is a good mark, until you realize that two of those games were against the Washington Wizards, who are predictably soft on the glass.
I’m anticipating Adebayo to once again fall short. These teams have played each other four times this season, and Adebayo played in two of these games, pulling down an average of 8 RPG in these games.
Kon Knueppel 15+ Points (-214)
The rookie sensation Kon Knueppel has been lights out this season, with 18.5 PPG while slashing .475/.425/.863. It’s reasonable to expect him to approach 50/40/90 territory soon. He’ll likely score more than 15 tomorrow due to how leaky Miami’s defense has been lately. The Heat are posting an atrocious 125 DEFRTG in their last 15 games. Of course, because it’s a playoff game, things should be much tighter on the defensive side of the ball. We’ve seen Erik Spoelstra conjure up miracles before with shoddy rosters, and tomorrow should be no exception. Regardless of how well-coached the Heat may be tomorrow, it’ll be tough for a defense this sloppy to hold Knueppel to less than 15, even if he’s gone Under in four straight games.
Davion Mitchell U 6.5 Assists (-104)
Davion Mitchell has been instrumental for the Heat, putting up a career-high 6.5 RPG in 28.6 minutes per game. He’s been instrumental to their offense and playing big minutes while sustaining some impressive efficiency, just not from the line. Tonight’s a different challenge, however, in a playoff atmosphere against the Hornets, who rank ninth in opponent APG conceded with just 25.9 per game. If we also factor in a slower pace and Tyler Herro’s presence, it’ll be tough to anticipate Mitchell breaking past the 6.5 mark tomorrow. They’ll be scrambling for possessions and things could get real sloppy.
