After they fell in the second round of the playoffs to the Seattle Mariners in a series in which five of their pitchers posted at least a 4.50 ERA, it was clear that the Detroit Tigers needed some pitching help to partner with two-time AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. So Detroit snapped up arguably the best starter available on the open market, Framber Valdez.
Valdez is set to make his fourth start for the 7-9 Tigers on Tuesday against a team that’s off to another slow start, the Kansas City Royals. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET.
The Royals will send Cole Ragans to the mound to oppose Valdez.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers prediction, preview
Detroit has had a season of runs so far, as each of its wins and losses have come in streaks. A four-game sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins, who finished at the bottom of the AL Central last season, isn’t good, but the Tigers are trending in the right direction after sweeping the Miami Marlins. Kansas City, meanwhile, already beat Minnesota twice and is coming off of a series split against the Chicago White Sox, who sit at the bottom of the division standings. Both teams have been relatively disappointing offensively, as the Royals rank fifth-to-last in OPS and Detroit just 13th (a slight dip from the first half of last season). Kansas City’s pitchers also haven’t performed as well, which is mostly a result of regression in the bullpen. All in all, the Tigers have gotten pretty unlucky to sit at 7-9 — they have a plus-10 run differential — while the Royals (minus-11) have been rather fortunate.
Kansas City’s mediocre record can be attributed in large part to Ragans. The 28-year-old leads all of the major leagues in losses this season, getting saddled with the decision in all three of his starts, although one of them — a six-inning outing against the Twins in which his lone run was unearned — wasn’t his fault. Still, advanced numbers don’t paint a very positive picture of him; while he ranks in the top sextile in whiff and strikeout rates, he’s really struggled to limit barrels, allowing them at a fourth-percentile clip after finishing 2025 in just the 28th percentile in that stat. Ragans’ propensity to allow hard contact could be a major issue against Detroit, which ranks 10th in barrel rate this season and finished seventh in that stat in 2025. The Tigers also posted an OPS 62 points higher against left-handed pitchers last season, and they scored 38 more runs at home. Ragans was somewhat better on the road, but this isn’t a favorable matchup for him overall, especially since Detroit has displayed better bat-to-ball skills in the early part of this season than it did in 2025.
Valdez hasn’t had a great start to the season, either. After finishing with no worse than a 3.66 ERA in any of his previous six seasons, he’s posted a 4.76 mark so far after getting obliterated for eight earned runs on 10 hits in five innings last Wednesday against Minnesota. To be fair, advanced metrics paint a much more rosy picture of Valdez’s performance; even after his rough start, his FIP is just 2.84, and his expected ERA is a solid 3.64. While he hasn’t done a great job generating whiffs or strikeouts, he’s been much better at limiting hard contact, which has historically been his biggest weakness. The Royals rank sixth this season in hard-hit rate and second in average exit velocity, but they find the launch-angle sweet spot at the fifth-lowest frequency and have the fourth-lowest expected slugging percentage as a result. They also put up an OPS 61 points lower against southpaws. Valdez has gotten pretty unlucky, especially on his signature sinker, but tonight presents an opportunity for him to get back on track.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-122)
This is a matchup between two teams (and starting pitchers) who are off to relatively slow starts, but Kansas City’s underlying numbers are worse than its record would imply and the Tigers’ are better. Detroit is also better-suited to take advantage of Ragans’ weaknesses than the Royals are Valdez’s, and Valdez has a longer track record of success than Ragans.
Strong Lean: Detroit Tigers 1st Run (+120)
Valdez has the advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Ragans, and the Tigers have had the far better offense so far in 2026. Detroit also had a higher OPS in the first through third innings than Kansas City last season. The Tigers’ superior offense makes this a better value proposition, even though the Royals will hit first every inning.
