Fortunes can change quickly in football.
Just a few weeks ago, Arsenal looked on track for a historic quadruple. Now, the Gunners finishing trophy-less again has hardly looked more realistic, as they’re out of both the FA Cup and EFL Cup and lead Manchester City by only six points in the Premier League with the Sky Blues having a game in hand and a game against Arsenal still to play.
Perhaps the Gunners’ best chance of a trophy will come in the Champions League, where they’ll seek to dispatch Sporting Lisbon and advance to the semifinals. They have a 1-0 lead on aggregate after winning the opening leg in Portugal, and the return leg will begin on Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) at the Emirates Stadium. The winner will face either Atlético Madrid or Barcelona in the semifinals.
Arsenal is a -210 favorite to win the return leg at DraftKings Sportsbook (-1800 to advance to the semifinals), and Os Leões are +550 (+950 to advance). There are +350 odds that the match will finish in a draw, which would result in an aggregate win for the Gunners.
Arsenal vs. Sporting Lisbon prediction, pick
The first leg was far from convincing for Arsenal; even though it pulled out the win in the end after Gabriel Martinelli found Kai Havertz in the box in stoppage time, it arguably should’ve been a harbinger of things to come ahead of a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth in the Premier League. Losses to Manchester City, Southampton, and the Cherries in English competition can hardly be confidence-inducing for the Gunners headed into the most pivotal period of the season, while Sporting hasn’t lost to a Portuguese team since August 30. The Premier League has more difficult average opponents than the Primeira Liga, but wins are productive regardless of the competition.
Arsenal’s attack has been good enough to vault the team to the top of the Premier League and the Champions League, but it doesn’t have a standout finisher besides former Sporting man Viktor Gyökeres, who has 18 goals in all competitions. The Gunners’ lack of aggression in the attack nearly cost them the first leg, as they managed just eight shots (half from outside the box) to Os Leões’ 11. All in all, while the Gunners rank third in expected goals per match, that’s mostly buoyed by early results against weaker League Phase competition, as they haven’t scored more than two goals in any match since February 22. They’ve still been winning on the strength of their defense, which has allowed by far the fewest goals and expected goals per match, but their mediocrity in ground duels for the competition as a whole puts them at risk against stronger attacks. Arsenal was poor enough in the attack and porous enough in the defense to have lost the first leg if not for David Raya, who made five tremendous saves. The Gunners will have to tackle more cleanly in the second leg if they want to put some daylight ahead of Sporting.
Os Leões know how to make comebacks. They fell behind 3-0 to Bodø/Glimt in the Round of 16 and made an incredible rally to win 5-3 on aggregate. They have plenty of attacking talent as well, even after losing Gyökeres; the man they signed to replace him, Luis Javier Suárez, leads all of Portugal with 24 goals, and Francisco Trincão has 10 goals and 14 assists in all competitions. Though they rank just 24th in the Champions League in expected goals per match, they’ve finished clinically, ranking fourth in goals minus expected goals, and managing eight attempts in the box against Arsenal usually leads to results. Plus, one goal could be enough to send the tie to penalties if Sporting’s defense does its job; this season, Os Leões have allowed the sixth-fewest expected goals per match, and they were able to mostly compete with the Gunners in both ground and aerial duels in the first leg while winning more tackles at a far higher success rate and hustling to clear it away more. Rui Silva isn’t quite as much of a star between the sticks as Raya, but he’s very solid in his own right, saving 71.1% of his shots so far this competition. Sporting will need to be more clinical in the passing game against a team that loves to press while playing more disciplined football than it is used to, but its defense is strong enough for it to have a chance.
As it often is with Arsenal, the game could be ugly. The Gunners don’t play with a lot of flair (except for the occasional Declan Rice free-kick), but they play physical, take advantage of set pieces, and don’t allow opponents to take advantage of the rare opportunities they do get. Os Leões should keep it competitive, but they’re just a little too foul-prone to shut down Arsenal’s set piece machine. The Gunners will advance to the semifinals, but it won’t be convincing.
