The Boston Red Sox are visiting the Minnesota Twins on Monday, with first pitch set for 7:40 p.m. ET/6:40 p.m. CT. Garrett Crochet will take the bump for the Red Sox, facing off against Twins righty Bailey Ober in Minneapolis. Looking at the odds, lines and Crochet’s strikeouts prop on DraftKings Sportsbook, here is a breakdown of how the lefty could perform in his fourth outing of the season.
Garrett Crochet Strikeouts Prop
DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Crochet’s strikeouts thrown line set at 7.5 for Monday’s contest against the Twins.
Crochet has been his typical dominant self to open 2026, going 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.038 WHIP and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He is, however, leading the league with three hit batsmen. The southpaw tossed 6.0 scoreless, three-hit innings on Opening Day, then took a step back by allowing five runs and four earned across 5.0 frames on April 1. Crochet gave up three hits in 6.0 scoreless innings to open his most recent start against the Brewers on April 7, but he stayed in a little too long and wound up allowing two hits, a walk and two runs while only recording one out in the seventh.
Across 32 starts last year, Crochet posted an 18-5 record, 2.59 ERA, 1.028 WHIP and 6.3 WAR. He led all American League pitchers with 205.1 innings, 255 strikeouts and 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. As a result, Crochet earned his second consecutive All-Star appearance and placed second in AL Cy Young voting.
Based on FanGraphs‘ Steamer model, Crochet is projected to go 12-8 with a 2.98 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 217 strikeouts across 29 starts and 175.0 innings in the remainder of 2026. His 5.6 projected fWAR ranks No. 3 among MLB starters, while his projected 11.14 strikeouts per nine innings rank No. 1.
Garrett Crochet picks, predictions
Given what happened last week against Milwaukee, I’m not sure manager Alex Cora will be incredibly comfortable trotting Crochet out past the sixth inning on Monday, barring a very low pitch count. Crochet only lasted that long in 15 of his 32 starts last season, and maybe he just hasn’t built up enough yet in 2026. The odds back that up, too – DraftKings has Crochet recording over 18.5 outs at +133, while the under is favored at -178.
When Crochet didn’t go beyond the sixth last year, he only cleared 7.5 strikeouts in eight of the 17 opportunities. He has failed to hit the mark in two of his three starts in 2026, even if he has reached at least seven in all three. The Twins pose a favorable matchup for Crochet in terms of punchouts, since they do rank seventh in strikeouts per game, but their team OPS+ is over 100. Plus, Minnesota batters have gone over 7.5 strikeouts through 6.0 innings in just one of their last five games. None of the last eight starters who have faced the Twins have reached eight strikeouts before getting the hook. While outfielders Matt Wallner and James Outman have remained strikeout-prone, the meat of Minnesota’s lineup has been more disciplined over the past week.
Best Bet: Garrett Crochet under 7.5 strikeouts thrown (-108)
