Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate: Willson Contreras, Nick Kurtz and Oneil Cruz.
Let’s break them down.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Willson Contreras 1+ Home Run (+524)
Not a lot has been going well for the Red Sox in 2026, but you can’t blame Contreras, who has been exactly what Boston hoped he would be when it acquired the veteran slugger. It’s still early, and it’s just a sample of 67 plate appearances, but Contreras has been tearing the cover off the baseball through the first three weeks of the season, sporting a 97th percentile expected wOBA (.434) and a 90th percentile barrel rate (16.2%).
That should play extremely well in a matchup with the fly ball oriented Bailey Ober on Monday night. Ober surrendered 30 home runs in a poor campaign in 2025. Heck, even in a great showing in 2024, Ober still conceded 27 long balls — that’s just how things work when your career GB/FB ratio is a microscopic 0.64. Ober’s propensity to lean on his change-up also means reverse splits. Across three starts, RHBs have combined to slash .310/.355/.517 off the 30-year-old. I can not overstate how nice a spot this is for Contreras, especially with odds longer than 5/1.
Oneil Cruz 1+ Home Run (+511)
This is an interesting one. Let’s start with the fact that Oneil Cruz is not “matchup dependent” when it comes to hitting a home run — unless that matchup is a southpaw. The 27-year-old enters the day with 99th percentile bat speed (78.4), which has translated into 99th percentile average exit velocity (96.3) and a 96th percentile barrel rate (20.5%). Is there a ton of swing and miss in his profile? You know it. But when Cruz gets a hold of one, there’s no doubt its going a long, long way.
Still, on paper, Monday evening isn’t all that appealing a scenario. Not only does Washington have its ace on the mound in Cade Cavalli, a ground ball specialist who has yet to allow a home run in 2026, yet this tilt will also take place at the spacious PNC Park in Pittsburgh. This is a good time to remind everyone that when taking a home run prop, you’re not only betting against a starting pitcher — you’re also betting against a bullpen. The Nationals’ bullpen has been a tire fire this season, surrendering a league-high 2.26 opponent long balls per nine. The unit’s 6.22 xERA is nearly a full run higher than any other team. Look for Cruz and the Pirates to do some damage in the later innings if they don’t get to Cavalli.
Nick Kurtz 1+ Home Run (+441)
Our national nightmare is over. Nick Kurtz finally hit his first home run of 2026. It took way longer than expected, but Kurtz’s third inning blast off of Freddy Peralta on Sunday was an important one, as it was the lone run scored in the Athletics’ 1-0 victory over the reeling Mets. Through 63 plate appearances, Kurtz is batting a paltry .204. However, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year still possesses 98th percentile bat speed (76.6) and 99th percentile average exit velocity (97.1). I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he heats up quickly now that the seal has been broken.
Could he hit No. 2 tonight? Well, I happen to think there’s a pretty decent chance. Normally, I would not be taking bets against Nathan Eovaldi, who was almost unhittable for the duration of 2025, but the 36-year-old has already conceded four opponent home runs in just 14.2 innings of work in 2026. It might be nothing more than a blip on the radar when the season is said and done, yet those early struggles combined with Sutter Health Park are enough for me to take on shot on Kurtz going deep in back-to-back games.
