The 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers had the best run differential across a 162-game season in MLB history, out-scoring their opponents by 334 runs to finish 111-51. It’s early in the 2026 season, but the Atlanta Braves are ahead of that pace, posting a plus-46 through 16 games. If they continue this form for the remainder of the season, they’ll top even the St. Louis Maroons’ plus-458 mark in 1884.
The Braves obviously shouldn’t be expected to play at a historic pace for the entire season, but they should feel generally confident about their ability to bounce back to contention now that both their pitching staff and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. are fully healthy. They’ll begin a home series against the second-place NL East team, the Miami Marlins, tonight at 7:15 p.m. ET.
Miami will send volatile flamethrower Eury Pérez to crest the rubber, and Grant Holmes will start for Atlanta.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves prediction, preview
One season after finishing third and fourth in the NL East, both teams were expected to improve, after the Marlins made some common-sense acquisitions to shore up their shaky bullpen and the Braves saw some key players return to health. Improve they have; the fact that both teams rank in the top seven in OPS and top four in bullpen ERA reflects both genuinely impressive performance and good fortune. Sure, Atlanta’s run differential has been padded by a couple of blowout wins, including a 13-1 result against the Cleveland Guardians yesterday, and Miami is starting to cool down after getting swept by the Detroit Tigers, but both teams have displayed plenty of reasons for belief.
Still, the visitors will face a tough task tonight with Peréz on the mound. The flame-throwing Dominican, who will turn 23 on Wednesday, hasn’t built on the potential he demonstrated in his rookie season, when he finished with a 3.15 ERA in 19 starts. After undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing the entire 2024 season, he had just a 4.25 ERA last season and is at 5.06 through his first three starts of 2026. Pérez’s four-seam fastball is even faster as it was last season, and he still generates whiffs and strikeouts at an elite rate, but when damage comes, it comes in droves: he ranks in just the eighth percentile in barrel rate. The Braves do chase a lot, but they’ve also recorded barrels at the third-highest rate this season after finishing a solid 11th in that stat in 2025. Pérez has also issued a lot of free passes, and Atlanta’s plate discipline consistently ranks near the top of the league. A high walk rate is basically a guarantee as long as the Braves roster Acuña, who has ranked in the top quintile in walk rate in each of the past five seasons. He could be in for a long night, especially if his road struggles from 2025 continue.
Atlanta should have a significant starting pitching advantage. Holmes has built on a stellar spring training, pitching to a 2.55 ERA in his first three starts of the season. Most of his improvements from last season seem sustainable, given that they can largely be tied to his increased reliance on a slider that was his strongest pitch last season. He’s still far from a perfect pitcher, as he gives up too many walks and fly balls, but he’s done a good job inducing soft contact. Plus, his ability to miss bats could help tame the Marlins, who have whiffed at the third-lowest rate. Miami has also done a bad job finding the launch-angle sweet spot, which could mitigate Holmes’ tendency to allow fly balls. The Marlins’ patient approach at the plate could elevate Holmes’ pitch count skyrocketing, but their lack of pop and Atlanta’s league-best defense should keep the score low. Plus, I trust the Braves’ bullpen to lock it down it relief more than I do Miami’s.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves pick, best bet
Best Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+141)
The Marlins rely on bat-to-ball skills to win, and that could pose issues against Atlanta’s elite defense. I trust Pérez more than Holmes in the long-term, but he hasn’t reached his sky-high potential quite yet, and the Braves’ bats are more than good enough to impart damage.
Strong Lean: Drake Baldwin 1+ Runs + RBI’s (-135)
This feels like exceptional value for a player who leads all of the major leagues in both runs and RBI’s, recording at least one of either in all but three of his games this season. It’s not like it came out of the blue, either; Baldwin won NL Rookie of the Year last season. He’s posted an absurd 1.319 xSLG against right-handed fastballs this season, and while that’s bound to come down at some point, lefties saw Pérez’s four-seamer pretty well last season too.
