Last September, the Cleveland Guardians went on a historic charge, erasing a 15.5-game deficit (11 games at the start of the month) to claim the AL Central over the stunned Detroit Tigers. This season, it’s obviously early, but it’s looking like the Guardians won’t have to make a comeback, as they’re tied atop the division through 16 games.
Cleveland will continue its six-game road trip tonight, when it opens a three-game set against the St. Louis Cardinals at 7:45 p.m. ET.
The Guardians will send their ace, Gavin Williams, to the mound, while the Cardinals will start Matthew Liberatore.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cleveland Guardians at St. Louis Cardinals prediction, preview
Both teams are off to decent starts so far. Cleveland is 9-7, though it’s coming off of a lopsided defeat against the Atlanta Braves last night, and St. Louis is 8-7 despite taking just one of three games against the disappointing Boston Red Sox. There have been some positive signs for both teams offensively; after each finished the 2025 season in the bottom quintile in OPS, each has had a roughly league-average offense so far. Guardians rookie Chase DeLauter looks like a potential All-Star, posting a 203 OPS+ in his first 15 career games, and Cardinals top prospect JJ Wetherholt has provided plenty as a baserunner and a defender despite struggling at the plate early on. St. Louis right fielder Jordan Walker also leads the league in home runs and slugging percentage after being one of the worst qualified hitters in baseball last season. Each team’s pitching staff has taken a step back relative to last season, but some of the players who have struggled have previous track records of success, so they should be in line to bounce back.
Williams could make life tricky for the Cardinals. He has enjoyed a breakout season so far in 2026, giving up just five hits and four earned runs in 17.2 innings (good for a 2.04 ERA), and he out-dueled World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto on April 1. To be fair, Williams still has his flaws — he leads all of the majors in walks for the second straight season, and his .115 average on balls in play and 3.59 expected ERA suggest that some regression is to be expected — but he’s cut down on some of those weaknesses. His average exit velocity and chase percentage have both improved from bottom-quartile to league-average, and in part, that’s sustainable; he’s stopped relying quite as much on his balky four-seam fastball and turned to his stronger sinker. Still, St. Louis has improved across the board offensively so far in 2026, especially via improved plate discipline and contact rates, so it could be poised to take advantage of Williams’ flaws. Most critically, the Cardinals have walked at an above-average rate so far this season.
Liberatore has been unimpressive in his first few starts of the season. He’s never finished the season with better than a 4.00 ERA or FIP, and so far this season, he has a 3.38 ERA and 6.08 FIP through three starts, failing to earn the decision in any of them. He particularly struggled in his latest effort, conceding four runs on nine hits in five innings in a defeat against the Washington Nationals. Advanced metrics don’t paint a much better picture of the southpaw; he’s ranked below the league median in a majority of Statcast categories in each of his five professional seasons. While he’s done a good job limiting walks, he also hasn’t missed many bats, and while Cleveland didn’t have much power last season, it added DeLauter, and it still has one of the league’s contact kings in Steven Kwan. The Guardians were also significantly better against finesse pitchers, thanks to their combination of contact and plate discipline. They should be in line to do some damage, especially against a team whose fielders have been below-average so far this season.
Cleveland Guardians at St. Louis Cardinals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-118)
I considered taking Cleveland to cover the run line (+139), given that Williams — despite his imperfections — is a significantly better pitcher than Liberatore. Still, I’ll play it safe and respect St. Louis’ home field advantage.
Strong Lean: Chase DeLauter 2+ Total Bases (+138)
The sample size is small, but DeLauter has been quite good against lefties so far, posting a 1.007 OPS against them in 18 plate appearances. He also had reverse splits in the minors in 2025, mashing to the tune of a 1.116 OPS against southpaws. Liberatore also likes to throw sliders against lefties, DeLauter has had a 1.100 slugging percentage against that pitch.
