Last season, Paris Saint-Germain peaked in the second half of the season, shaking off a rough opening to its European campaign and romping through the knockout phase on its way to its maiden Champions League title. This season, Les Parisiens have done something similar, limping their way through the League Phase and the Knockout Playoffs before throttling Chelsea, 8-3, in the Round of 16. Paris also appears to be peaking in Ligue 1.
PSG’s hot form should strike fear into Liverpool, which was dispatched by the eventual winners in the Round of 16 last season and now finds itself in a 2-0 hole headed into Tuesday’s 3 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) second leg at Anfield. The Reds will need to win by at least two goals to stand a chance of keeping their season alive, and they’re no guarantee to qualify for next season’s Champions League through their league finish, as Chelsea, Brighton, Brentford, Everton, and Sunderland are all within six points of it in fifth.
The aggregate winner after Tuesday’s match will face either Real Madrid or Bayern Münich on the stacked side of the bracket. Bayern won the first leg of that match, 2-1, last Tuesday.
The action should be plenty exciting on its own, but DraftKings users can increase their personal stakes by placing bets — either singles or same-game parlays — on the match. I’ve gone through and put together a three-leg Same-Game Parlay (SGP) that I like.
Liverpool is a +140 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (+450 to reach the semifinals), with Les Parisiens at +155 (-700 to advance). A draw — which would send the defending champs through — is available at +210.
Best Same-Game Parlay (SGP) for Liverpool vs. PSG
- Paris Saint-Germain Moneyline
- Mohamed Salah 3+ Shots
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Score or Give Assist
Paris Saint-Germain Moneyline
These lines overcorrect for home-field advantage, as PSG really hasn’t been much worse away from the Parc des Princes. The last time Les Parisiens lost away from home came on February 13, and they’re still a very solid 14-4-3 on the road. The chasm between these teams is wide; Paris arguably got unlucky not to have won the first leg by a larger margin, as it uncorked 18 shots to the Reds’ three and controlled possession for 74% of the contest. But perhaps it’s a blessing in disguise that they didn’t score more than two; if they had, they could roll out a less-than-full-strength lineup and be less likely to win the second leg.
Mohamed Salah 3+ Shots
In what will be his final season at Liverpool, Salah remains a key player. He briefly fell out of favor with the club early in the season, but as of late, he’s played a critical role, firing at least three shots in each of his last four matches, including seven in the second leg against Galatasaray. Though he missed the first leg with a muscular issue, he returned to health after the international break and was effective in each of the Reds’ matches, scoring against Fulham in the Premier League. With Alexander Isak only recently returning to the lineup after missing nearly four months with a broken leg, Salah should continue to be Liverpool’s most reliable attacker. He’s likely to be primarily marked by Nuno Mendes, which is tough on the surface, but both Mendes and Achraf Hakimi on the right are more attacking-oriented wingbacks than pure defenders.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Score or Give Assist
Kvaratskhelia has had a brilliant Champions League campaign, scoring in five of the team’s knockout fixtures so far, and he’s one of the competition’s leaders in volume, as only Vinicius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, and Victor Osimhen have attempted more total shots than his 39. He also ranks 12th in completed passes into the final third. Though he hasn’t done a great job getting the ball on target — he managed only two of seven in the first leg — volume should eventually pay off against the Reds’ backup shot-stopper, Giorgi Mamardashvili. Kvaratskhelia’s countryman arguably hasn’t been worth the hefty price tag Liverpool paid for him, saving only 61.1% of his opportunities in the Champions League.
