Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple.
With that in mind, here are my top three NRFI picks for Monday’s full slate of MLB action.
Cubs at Phillies NRFI (-130)
The Cubs and Phillies meet in one of the most interesting National League series to start the week. Both teams come into the series with identical records of 7-8 after disappointing starts, but each still has playoff aspirations if they turn it around. On Monday at Citizens Bank Park, Cristopher Sanchez takes the ball for the home team against Javier Assad.
Sanchez is 1-1 on the year with a 1.65 ERA, 1.06 FIP and 23 in 16 1/3 innings. He has a 77.3% NRFI rate in his 88 career starts, and he had a string of 11 straight NRFI that was snapped in his last start against the Giants. Sanchez will look to get back on the NRFI train against the Cubs.
Chicago has hit NRFI in 11 of their 15 games this season (73.3%), the third-highest mark in the majors. They will look to Assad for a second straight turn through the rotation, after the 28-year-old righty threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings in his first start of the season against the Rays. Assad has a streak of seven straight NRFI, the longest active streak of any probable pitcher coming into Monday’s start.
The Phillies have been one of the worst teams in the majors for NRFI this season, but with Sanchez and Assad both throwing well and above average at NRFI, this is a strong play at -130.
Red Sox at Twins NRFI (-155)
The Red Sox won their second series in a row on Sunday by beating the Cardinals. They got a first-inning homer from Willson Contreras but are still 9-for-15 (60%) hitting NRFI. They’ll face the red-hot Twins (there, I said it) on Monday, who are 11-for-15 (68.8%) hitting NRFI this year, with the fourth-highest NRFI rate in the majors.
The odds are shorter than I normally target, but the limited slate and other options are not nearly as attractive as this matchup between Garrett Crochet and Bailey Ober.
Ober is actually sneaky-good at NRFI, not allowing a run in 73.7% of his starts in his career. He finished last season with a five-game NRFI streak and has hit in two of his first three games this season as well. He did give up a run in the first in his most recent first inning againt the Tigers.
Crochet also gave up a run in his most recent first inning, but he did not in his first two outings of the year. The Red Sox ace has a 81.8% NRFI rate in his career, which is the second-best on the day behind only Paul Skenes (86.2%).
Guardians at Cardinals NRFI (-145)
The Guardians lost the rubber game of their three-game set in Atlanta on Sunday Night Baseball, but they’ll look to get back in the win column against the Cardinals in St. Louis. They’ll turn to Gavin Williams, who has a five-game NRFI streak coming into his fourth start of the season. Williams is 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings.
The Guardians have the second-highest NRFI% of any team in the majors this season, hitting in 12 of their 16 contests (75%). At the plate in the top of the first, they’ll face Matthew Liberatore, who gave up a run in his first inning in his last start but has converted a scoreless first inning in 40 of his 56 career starts (71.4%), slightly above league average.
I usually hunt longer odds for NRFI, but on Monday’s slate, these three plays stand out as especially strong options. If you’re looking for longer odds, you can play them in round robin formats or as a parlay, which boosts the odds to +391.
