It’s rare in April to hear that winds at Wrigley are blowing out at all, let alone at a 5+ mph clip. We’re starting our home run panhandling for Sunday there, and I’ve got my eye on that Pittsburgh/Cubs game as a potential hill in which them there is certainly gold. Spring weather is unfurling its full front westward, and temperatures even in the heartland are are reaching mid-70s. The picture I’m painting, perhaps a little too Marilynne-Robinson-Gilead albeit, is that it’s a wonderful day to be in love with the moonshot. A fine day, as well, to get in on the lunar action.
Below are my three favorite picks from the early slate of games to whack one into the stands.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Oneil Cruz to hit a home run (+185)
Those who backed the O’Neil Cruz comeback are enjoying their early returns, and he’s currently got the most serious wallop of a swing profile in that Wrigley game. Through the opening stretch he’s sitting on a .345/.400/.618 line (1.018 OPS) with four HRs, and the underlying quality backs it: floating between a 92–93 mph average exit velocity, a 55%+ hard-hit rate, and a barrel rate pushing 15%. That’s top-tier territory for turning contact into home runs, especially for a hitter whose batted-ball mix already leans toward lift (roughly 40% fly-ball rate early). And, finally, we can all exhale that Cruz’s expected stats just about sit right there with the ones on the back of his baseball card (xSLG north of .600, xwOBA around .400 range).
It’s a nightmare that Taillon is on the mound for the Cubs in this one. He’s has allowed two HRs in 10.2 IP, but more importantly, he’s living in the zone with a contact-heavy profile—historically a sub-20% K rate and HR/FB around league average or worse. Against a hitter like Cruz on a heater like his, that’s dangerous; his is not a bat you want to test right now. You’d just be paving him runway for takeoff. Add in a 12.5-run-projected total at Wrigley, mid-70s temps, and a park that amplifies pulled fly balls, and this becomes a perfect environment for Cruz’s damage profile. This is the cleanest combo on the board: elite barrel profile + contact-heavy pitcher + top run environment.
Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+295)
Judge’s surface line (.212/.300/.421, just three HRs) undersells what’s actually happening under the hood. He’s still posting a 95+ mph average exit velocity, a barrel rate in the 18–20% range, and a hard-hit rate north of 55%. These are all aligned just so with his MVP-level floor. The difference right now is the expected early-season variance. His expected metrics reflect that: xSLG closer to .550+ and xwOBA well above his actual output, meaning the power output is lagging the profile. Good news is, that’s exactly when you want to buy in on a slugger’s HR props. The market’s lagging, too.
Tampa’s Rasmussen holds sharp pitching line overall (1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP), but there’s a key crack: two HRs allowed in 10 IP, and a profile that still lives in the zone with fastballs/firm secondaries. He’s not a heavy ground-ball suppressor in the way that neutralizes Judge—when hitters lift against him, damage shows up. Judge’s batted-ball mix still leans into pull-side fly balls, and that’s the exact path to homers even against good pitchers. Say what you want about his batting average, but Aaron Judge will always lead the slate in raw HR probability per plate appearance when his barrel rate sits this high.
Jordan Walker to hit a home run (+750)
Price feels off to me. Walker is the pure value explosion play; the power indicators are screaming breakout, even though he had that tough ABS challenge-fail last night. He’s at .314/.365/.727 (1.092 OPS) with six HRs already, but the advanced profile is what makes +730 stand out. He’s running a barrel rate north of 18%, a hard-hit rate around 55%, and—most importantly—a massive jump in launch angle distribution, pushing his fly-ball rate into the mid-40% range after being ground-ball heavy early in his career. That’s the key transformation: same raw power, and now it’s getting in the air. His HR/FB rate is over 25%, and paired with a 93+ mph EV; that’s exactly how you sustain multi-homer pace stretches.
As a Sox fan, you’d do worse than to trust me: Brayan Bello is precisely the type of pitcher you hunt with that profile, and with this hot streak. Bello’s at a 9.00 ERA, 2.50 WHIP, and allowing constant traffic (13 hits + seven walks in eight IP). Even more important, Bello’s underlying issue is command inconsistency—when he falls behind, he has to come into the zone, and his stuff doesn’t miss enough bats to escape damage. That leads to elevated contact, and Walker is currently built to punish exactly that. At +750, you’re getting a hitter with top-10 barrel metrics and a newly optimized launch profile against a pitcher allowing constant baserunners and hittable pitches. That’s the definition of a high-upside HR ticket.
