Nothing like a Sunday matinee rubber match. The Diamondbacks and Phillies will settle who takes home this series as we kick off the afternoon’s MLB slate. Who has the upper hand here?
First pitch is set for 1:35 p.m. ET. The Phillies are -149 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Diamondbacks upset is priced at +123. The game total is set at O/U 8.5 runs.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Diamondbacks-Phillies game.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Preview
First things first, let’s get to know these starting pitchers.
Zac Gallen, a longtime Diamondback, takes the mound in this one. One of their most dependable arms during his tenure, Gallen came apart last season, surrendering a 4.83 ERA in 192 innings. In his walk year, he was expected to be a big-name trade target before commanding a large free agent deal; neither of those things materialized. Now he’s back in the desert looking to prove he has the goods.
Gallen doesn’t win with overwhelming stuff; his command and pitch mix are the key to success. But that has been a mixed bag as of late, not missing nearly enough bats or getting enough ground balls to make this formula work. Baseball Savant has charted him with a 5.52 expected ERA, almost double the 3.00 ERA on the back of his baseball card. Sooner or later, the chickens will come home to roost.
Young rookie Andrew Painter steps to the mound for the Phillies. The No. 2 prospect in the Philadelphia system, Painter has produced a mixed bag through two major league starts. His first turn was excellent, punching out eight Nationals over 5.1 innings while allowing only one run. Things got rough in his next outing against the Giants, coughing up 10 baserunners and four runs over four innings before getting the hook. Which version of Painter we see is anyone’s guess.
With the 6-foot-7 righty on the mound, you’ll see a dynamic pitch mix. Painter brings a lively fastball averaging just under 97 mph, with a power sinker sitting around 95. You’ll also see a healthy amount of sliders and curveballs with big break, with the occasional splitter and sweeper just for good measure. If he can command them and keep hitters on the back foot, he could be a deadly arm for Philly.
Both offenses continue to scuffle this season. They’re both in the bottom six in team OPS+, and Saturday’s game showed how deep the struggles have gotten. Despite sputtering pitching staffs, these teams combined to produce seven runs on a day where fireworks should have been in the cards. Whichever team heats up first tomorrow has a significant advantage.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to take this one home?
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Pick, Best Bet
Philadelphia sure has the better team, but I have a hard time placing my faith in Painter just yet. In only his third career start, the wheels could come off early. Perhaps he comes out and dominates, but I’ll put my chips on the veteran pitcher Gallen, figuring out how to navigate this struggling Phillies lineup, full of hitters he has plenty of experience against.
