All 30 Major League Baseball teams are back in action on Saturday as weekend series continue across the country. Seven games are scheduled under the lights after seven afternoon games with the Yankees-Rays matchup at 6:10 p.m., square in the middle of the two seven-game waves. With all 30 teams taking the field, there are plenty of options to consider for home run props. Even without some of the most homer-happy ballparks in play and with the weather still not ideal in some places, the home run props have been popping early in the year. Let’s swing for the fences and try to pinpoint some strong options to consider based on the matchups, environment, and current form of some sluggers for this Saturday on DraftKings Sportsbook.
By their nature, home run props are long-shot plays, but when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the best power hitters are long-shot plays to homer on any single day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday matchups: Vinnie Pasquantino, Wilyer Abreu and Rafael Devers.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Vinnie Pasquantino 1+ Home Run (+526)
Let’s start Saturday’s home run props with a longshot play from the late afternoon game between the Royals and the White Sox in Kansas City. Vinnie P’s power ability is definitely not what makes him a longshot, but the 28-year-old lefty is still searching for his first homer of the season after 14 games, which pushes his odds over 5:1. Pasquantino is 9-for-52 (.173) with a double and six walks. He has a 30.8% hard-hit rate on the year, but he had two hard-hit batted ball events in each of the first two games of this series, giving him an 80% hard-hit rate in that very small sample size. While his numbers haven’t shown it yet, he has hit the ball much better at home than on the road, according to his Statcast metrics.
The Royals get a favorable matchup against the White Sox in the third game of their four-game set, facing Erick Fedde, who was 4-13 with a 5.49 ERA and 5.20 FIP last year. Fedde struggled against lefties, allowing a .310 average, .527 SLG and .395 wOBA. Lefties hit 14 of the 19 homers that he allowed. Fedde has been much better in two starts this year, but he still served up a homer to Gunnar Henderson in his last outing.
The Pasquatch is 3-for-7 against Fedde in his career and hit this rocket in their meeting last year:
Wilyer Abreu 1+ Home Run (+495)
The Red Sox are in St. Louis taking on the Cardinals this weekend, and they’ll look to get the bats going after another disappointing showing Friday night. The offense has been quiet most of the year, but Wilyer Abreu has been the main exception. The 26-year-old lefty is hitting a scorching .392 (12-for-53) with four doubles, a triple and three home runs. His hard-hit rate is over 50% and his barrel rate is over 15%, which has led to a .484 wOBA and .686 SLG. He had multiple hits in each of his last two games, and he continues to make excellent contact on a regular basis and shows no signs of slowing down after starring in Venezuela’s magical run in the World Baseball Classic.
The Red Sox have a good matchup for their lefties, like Abreu against Kyle Leahy of the Cardinals on Saturday night. Leahy is 1-1 in his first two games after moving to the rotation for this season. He allowed six runs on 13 hits in 10 innings, including one homer. Lefties are 11-for-28 (.393) against Leahy this year, with that home run and a .481 wOBA. Throughout his career out of the bullpen, lefties have always had more success against Leahy, hitting seven of his 11 homers allowed and posting a .347 wOBA against Leahy in his 148 1/3 career innings.
Rafael Devers 1+ Home Run (+395)
Former Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers is back in the AL East as his Giants are in Baltimore to face the Orioles this weekend. Devers isn’t usually a fast starter, but he does have a pair of homers in the early going this year while going 12-for-55 (.218) with a .275 wOBA. He went 1-for-5 with just a single in the opener, but on Wednesday, he crushed his second homer of the season against the Phillies.
Devers is a strong play to consider at his odds near 4:1 on Saturday as he faces Chris Bassitt and the Orioles at Oriole Park and Camden Yards. Devers has 13 career homers in Baltimore, the third-most of any stadium behind only Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium. He has an .855 OPS in his 59 games at Camden Yards, and he will look to add to that success on Saturday night. He’s also had plenty of success against Bassitt, going 10-for-20 in their previous meetings with three doubles and three home runs in their previous meetings. Bassitt has struggled in his first two outings with the Orioles, and Devers has a good chance to continue those struggles this Saturday.
