On Tuesday, the Premier League clinched what has long been a foregone conclusion: that five teams will qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League via their league position. With the top four five points clear of fifth-place Liverpool but nine teams within seven points of the Reds, that final Champions League position will be a mad scramble.
Manchester City is clear of that morass, as the Sky Blues trail Arsenal by nine points atop the table but have a game in hand and will face the Gunners on April 19. However, Chelsea is right in the thick of it; the Blues trail Liverpool by one point but have a superior goal difference.
Given how tightly-packed the table is, Sunday’s 11:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. local) matchup at the Etihad Stadium will be crucial for both teams.
The Sky Blues are +115 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Blues are +210. There are +290 odds that the teams will share the points.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City prediction, pick
There’s been quite the chasm between the top two teams and everyone else this season, as while Manchester United only trails Manchester City by six points, the Sky Blues’ plus-32 goal difference is far superior to that of every other team besides Arsenal. City is also in significantly better form, having claimed 11 points from its last five games, while Chelsea has managed just four. Both are out of the Champions League after running into buzzsaws in the Round of 16; the Sky Blues fell to Real Madrid, 5-1, while the Blues were eliminated by Paris Saint-Germain, 8-2. Man City has been superior in domestic cups, winning the EFL Cup by ousting the Gunners in the final and advancing to the FA Cup semifinals by throttling Liverpool 4-0. Chelsea will also be in the FA Cup semis, where it’ll face Leeds United.
The Blues have plenty of attacking talent. Though they don’t have a world-class pure striker, João Pedro has been pretty consistent since joining from Brighton in the summer, scoring 14 goals in 31 Premier League appearances. Their brilliant mifield trio of Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernández, and Moisés Caicedo has contributed 20 goals as well, and Trevoh Chalobah, Reece James, and Malo Gusto have done a good job building from the back. But for all of its potential, Chelsea simply hasn’t been clinical enough; it has produced the most expected goals of any team in England, but ranks second-to-last in goals minus expected goals. The Blues have also been somewhat gettable in the back; they’ve allowed just the eighth-fewest expected goals, have given up the fourth-highest shot-in-box percentage, and have allowed the third-most headed goals. To be fair, they’ve intercepted the most passes and have won both ground and aerial duels at an above-average rate, but their penchant for fouling and giving up high-quality looks could prove problematic against City. Robert Sánchez is serviceable overall, but a save percentage south of 70% places him just ninth in the Premier League.
The Chelsea defense will certainly be challenged by the Sky Blues, who also have among the strongest front lines in the country. Erling Haaland is simply inevitable, leading the Premier League with 22 goals, nearly matching last-place Wolves’ total by himself. He’s not alone, though; 2023-24 Premier League Player of the Year Phil Foden has seven goals and midseason signing Antoine Semenyo has five in just nine games after scoring 10 with Bournemouth in the first half of the season. All in all, Man City ranks second in expected goals and second in shots on target, and it’s made the most of its opportunities, ranking fourth in goals minus expected goals. Defensively, the Sky Blues have been second only to Arsenal, allowing the second-fewest goals and expected goals, though like the Blues, they’ve allowed a high proportion of opponents’ shots to come within the box. Plus, City has won ground and aerial duels at a higher rate than Chelsea while fouling far less frequently and making fewer errors leading to shots and goals. It also has the advantage between the sticks, as Gianluigi Donnarumma remains one of the world’s best shot-stoppers despite somewhat surprisingly falling out of favor at PSG before the season.
Both teams play relatively conservatively, attempting among the most passes per possession and completing them at among the highest rates, so the Blues’ ability to intercept passes cleanly and convert high turnovers into goals could result in them getting on the scoreboard. Ultimately, though, Chelsea makes far too many silly errors, and the Sky Blues are far too clinical once they get clear goal-scoring opportunities. Haaland is coming off of a hat trick against the Reds in the FA Cup, and the Blues simply aren’t good enough to fare much better.
