The 750-horsepower short track package arrives at Bristol, and the tire-wear formula is already established. Phoenix and Martinsville both rewarded drivers who hold lap times deep into a run. The field separates quickly here.
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Top DraftKings Picks for the 2026 Food City 500
- Denny Hamlin ($11,000) — Nobody combines late-run strength with laps-led upside the way he does right now. His green-to-long run delta at Bristol over the last four races is plus-1.00, and he led 292 of 400 laps at Martinsville three weeks ago on the same package.
- Kyle Larson ($11,500) — Two wins at Bristol in the last four races back up a green-to-long run delta of plus-0.51 that confirms his car holds up late. He finished third at Phoenix and ninth at Martinsville, with the Darlington 19th coming after contact rather than a tire failure.
- Christopher Bell ($10,500) — His green-to-long run delta of plus-0.95 at Bristol is fantastic, and leading 176 laps at Phoenix is the 2026 proof of concept. He sits below Larson and Ryan Blaney in salary but above them in Bristol-specific late-run profile. The value case at $10,500 is real.
- Ty Gibbs ($9,500) — The best green-to-long run delta at Bristol in the entire field is plus-1.07, and it belongs to Gibbs. Three straight top-six finishes on tire-wear tracks in 2026 confirm it is not a data artifact. The salary has not caught up to what the package numbers say about this car.
- Ryan Blaney ($10,700) — Winning at Phoenix and finishing sixth at Martinsville makes him the most consistent driver on this package through seven races. His Bristol average running position over the last four races is 8.50, and his green-to-long run delta there is plus-0.76. High confidence, accurate salary, limited upside.
- Chase Elliott ($9,700) — Winning at Martinsville two weeks ago on the same package is the most relevant recent evidence, and five short track wins in the historical data provide the foundation beneath it. His recent Bristol average running position of 13.69 is the honest concern. Tournament leverage off the top chalk is real at this price.
- Brad Keselowski ($8,700) — Leading 142 laps at Darlington, winning both stages, and finishing second while the field fell apart on tires is the most persuasive single-race evidence file in this tier. His Bristol green-to-long run delta of plus-0.83 adds the track-specific layer. The salary is underpriced for what the Darlington tape showed.
- Chase Briscoe ($8,900) — His Bristol average running position of 9.87 over the last four races comes with a perfect finishing rate across those starts. Briscoe has been quietly one of the better package fits in the field without drawing attention. Legitimate top-ten upside at a salary that does not demand it.
- William Byron ($10,000) — He finished fifth at Martinsville and eighth at Darlington, and the 2026 form on this package is real. His green-to-long run delta at Bristol is plus-0.19, which is the weakest part of the profile. Reliable cash-game floor, harder to justify in tournaments at $10,000.
- Carson Hocevar ($8,000) — Finishing fourth at Darlington in a race that destroyed tires all afternoon is the lead evidence for this selection. His Bristol green-to-long run delta of plus-0.54 adds the track-specific layer, and the $8,000 price makes him the most compelling value play in the mid-tier. Tournaments that need differentiation should start here.
- Tyler Reddick ($8,500) — Four wins on the season, but Bristol is a documented weak spot, with a recent average running position of 20.16 across the last four races there. He finished fifteenth at Martinsville on a comparable surface. Fading him here in favor of Hocevar or Keselowski is the right tournament call this week.
- Joey Logano ($9,200) — He finished third at Martinsville and owns five short track wins in the historical data, which gives this entry real standing. The recent Bristol results are uninspiring, but race-winning speed showed up two weeks ago when the package demanded it. A workable pivot off Hamlin when tournaments need salary relief.
- Ryan Preece ($7,500) — His Bristol average running position of 17.02 over the last four races is honest about the finishing ceiling. The value case rests on a tendency to lead laps early from favorable starting spots before strategy reshuffles the field. DFS value here does not require a top-ten finish to pay off.
- Chris Buescher ($8,200) — He finished ninth at Darlington and the price makes this a floor-heavy option worth considering. Buescher pairs naturally with Keselowski in RFK stacks, and both cars proved they belong on this package at Darlington. Useful in cash games when the salary works.
- Bubba Wallace ($7,300) — Sixth at Phoenix and a front-row starting spot at Darlington before long-run tire degradation arrived shows legitimate early-race speed on this package. His short track average running position of 15.65 caps the ceiling honestly. At $7,300 in large-field tournaments, the early laps-led exposure makes the dart worth throwing.
