After many teams had Thursday off, all 30 Major League Baseball teams are in action on Friday as part of their weekend series. After a Wrigley matinee, most of the action is under the lights, with plenty of options to consider for home run props. Let’s swing for the fences and try to pinpoint some strong options to consider based on the matchups, environments and current form of some sluggers for Friday night on DraftKings Sportsbook.
By their nature, home run props are long-shot plays, but when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the best power hitters are long-shot plays to homer on any single day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday matchups:
Top MLB Home Run Props
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+357)
We’ll start our home run props in Atlanta, where the Braves host the Guardians. While the wind isn’t much of a factor, it will be nice and warm with game time temps forecast to be over 70. The Guardians will give the ball to Slade Cecconi on Friday night, who has been prone to giving up homers to lefties lately. In his first start of the year, he gave up six runs to the Mariners and a home run to lefty Brendan Donovan before a much better outing his last time around. Last year, he gave up 13 of his 24 homers allowed in 23 games to left-handed hitters.
Olson is off to a good start this season and already has three homers in his first 13 games after hitting exactly 29 dingers in each of the last two seasons after his career-high 54 long balls in 2023. He has a 19.4% barrel rate in the early going and is hitting .280 with a .300 ISO and .413 wOBA. All three of his homers came during Atlanta’s recent seven-game road trip, including this blast from Wednesday:
Garrett Mitchell 1+ Home Run (+547)
Like the Braves, the Brewers are coming home after a road trip to host a series this weekend and have a favorable matchup for Friday’s opener. Milwaukee gets back indoors after playing in chilly Kansas City and Boston, and they’ll be taking on Jake Irvin of the Nationals on Friday, who gave up more home runs than any other pitcher in the majors last season. Irvin allowed 38 homers in 33 games last year, and lefties hit 26 of those dingers with a .384 wOBA. This year, he gave up two homers in his only road start, which was against the Cubs.
The Brewers lefties are a strong group of options, including Jake Bauers, Christian Yelich, and Brice Turang (if he plays), but my favorite value option is from Garrett Mitchell, who is typically hitting cleanup against righties. Mitchell missed most of last year with a shoulder injury, but he is hitting .310 with three stolen bases, 13 RBI, and a .426 wOBA in his first 10 games this season. He has a 56.3% and 18.8% barrel rate so far this season, making excellent contact with a .544 xSLG. He only has one homer (highlighted below) but his contact rate could set up a second dinger on Friday, and his long odds make him a great value.
Jarren Duran 1+ Home Run (+570)
After beating the Brewers in two of three games to close out their homestand, the Red Sox are headed on the road to St. Louis, where they’ll have much better homer conditions at Busch Stadium. They’ll take on former-Boston starting pitcher Dustin May, who signed with the Cards this offseason but has struggled in his first two starts for St. Louis, giving up 13 runs on 17 hits (including a pair of homers) over just 7 1/3 innings. Lefties have gone 10-for-20 against him with two doubles, a triple and two homers for a 1.542 OPS. Last year, lefties also hit him hard, posting an .852 OPS and hitting 15 of the 21 homers against May.
The Red Sox lefties are good options for home run props, and I’m taking Duran to get his first homer of the season. He has scuffled to just a batting average of only .182 (6-for-33) through his first nine games. He hasn’t homered yet, but he does have two doubles and a pair of stolen bases. He has only a 28.6% hard-hit rate on the season, but over his last five games, he has five hard-hit balls with a pair of barrels. He looked excellent in the World Baseball Classic, and he should start to have the results that match up with his quality of contact. The fact that he hasn’t homered in the MLB season yet keeps his props well over 5:1 despite the great matchup for him against May.
