I think it would be fair to say that expectations were low for the Twins coming into 2026, but after a four-game sweep of the Tigers, Minnesota is 7-6 to start the year and the vibes are fantastic.
Conversely, expectations could not have been higher for the Blue Jays, yet the club has lost six of its past seven contests and currently sits two games below .500. As they say, you can’t predict baseball, Suzyn.
We’re still going to try, though. I mean, that’s literally my job.
Let’s preview this American League clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Twins vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
If you were to just take a quick glance at the probable pitchers for tonight’s tilt, you might be thrown off by the presence of the name Patrick Corbin. You might have questions like: What is Patrick Corbin doing on the Blue Jays? Or even: How long has Patrick Corbin even been on the Blue Jays? Well, I’m here to answer those queries. Toronto inked the 36-year-old to a one-year deal last weekend, a direct result of the team’s mountain of pitching injuries. With Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber slowly ramping their way up to form — and Jose Berrios on the IL — the Jays are suddenly desperately searching for innings. Meanwhile, Corbin is technically coming off his best season in quite some time, though that is a hilariously low bar to clear. In 155.1 innings with the Rangers in 2025, the lefty managed a 4.40 ERA and a 4.25 FIP. He was fine. By his own standards, anyway.
Honestly, it’s the Jays’ bats that have been the larger concern in the team’s slow start. Toronto’s .318 expected wOBA ranks juuuust outside the league’s top 10, and its .264 BABIP sits 24th, so there’s legitimate reason to expect some normalization around the corner; but the club also hasn’t hit a home run since last Saturday. It’s 1-for-19 (.053) with the bases loaded. It’s sitting with the third-lowest ISO (.113). To say that the Jays have been lacking the “big hit” would be a massive understatement, and it’s something John Schneider has talked about at length. This lineup simply needs more from the likes of George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho.
That trio will try to right the ship on Friday night against Simeon Woods Richardson. The 25-year-old is actually a former top prospect of the Blue Jays, being sent over to Minnesota in the trade for the aforementioned Berrios. Woods Richardson’s been pretty average in his time at the MLB level, registering a 4.12 ERA and a 4.39 FIP over 266.1 innings of work. Specific to 2026, Woods Richardson has allowed only three earned runs over two starts, yet I fear his 5.12 FIP tells us more than his 2.31 ERA. The RHP has struck out just 13.0% of the opposing hitters he’s faced this season with a microscopic 6.4% swinging strike rate. The inability to miss bats at all is a major red flag. SWR isn’t the type of arm that I generally find myself backing with my hard-earned money.
Twins vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-140)
Corbin’s got an ERA well over 5.00 the past half-decade, while Woods Richardson can’t miss a bat if he tried. One of these two starters should blow-up, which will allow us to easily coast over this total.
Strong Lean: Byron Buxton 2+ Total Bases (-114)
Buxton’s off to a slow start in 2026, but in 2025, he absolutely mashed LHPs. In 123 plate appearances within the split, the All-Star slashed .306/.374/.676 with a .370 IS0 and a 178 wRC+. 57.8% of Buxton hits off southpaws went for extra bases.
