Every single NBA team is in action on Friday night, bringing us a loaded 15-game slate with plenty of variety to choose from. While the Minnesota Timberwolves are locked into the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference and will avoid the Play-In Tournament, the Houston Rockets are currently still fighting for their position in the playoff picture and will wind up somewhere between No. 3 and No. 5. As such, tonight’s matchup between these two teams will play a crucial factor in deciding who Houston will face in the first round.
Here’s a Rockets vs. Timberwolves prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Friday night matchup.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets prediction, preview
Minnesota Timberwolves
With the sixth seed in the Western Conference officially locked in, the Timberwolves are largely taking it easy. The injury report tonight is extensive and there’s little left to play for, though the outcome of this game (and the other two remaining) can impact who they’ll eventually play when the postseason begins. With a 47-33 record and the 10th-ranked NETRTG at +3.3, this squad should be prepared for most teams that look to stand in their way.
Minnesota is an excellent unit on both sides of the ball, averaging 117.6 PPG with the No. 12 OFFRTG in the NBA. Standout efficiency is the key to that success with the Wolves top 10 in both FG% (48.0%) and 3P% (37.0%), also sitting seventh in free-throw rate. While the passing isn’t the most effective with the 21st-ranked AST/TO ratio at 16th in total assists per game, they still do plenty of things right on that end of the floor thanks to the amount of sheer talent throughout this roster (more on that shortly). Defensively, the Timberwolves make a case as a strong two-way team while allowing 114.3 PG and coming in at seventh in DEFRTG as well. They’re also 12th in rebounds per night with 44.3, fourth in blocks, and 10th in opponent turnovers per game.
This is where things get tricky, though. With their spot in the playoffs secured, the Timberwolves have listed Anthony Edwards (knee) and Naz Reid (shoulder) as questionable, while Rudy Gobert (rest) and Julius Randle (hand) are both out. That means Minnesota will miss its second-leading scorer with Randle’s all-around production of 21.1 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists on the bench, plus Gobert leaves the unit without its starting center and 11.5 boards a game. If Edwards (28.9 PPG) and Reid (13.6 PPG) don’t play, that’ll leave this rotation even more shorthanded. Jaden McDaniels does bring 14.8 PPG with Ayo Dosunmu and Donte DiVincenzo playing supporting roles, but there are many unknowns here.
Houston Rockets
Just a few short weeks ago, plenty of people were ready to write the Rockets off as a contender. However, they’ve now rattled off eight consecutive victories since blowing a 13-point lead in overtime to this very same T-Wolves squad back on March 25. Now 51-29, Houston remains very much in the hunt for an advantageous matchup in the first round. With a NETRTG of +5.2, sixth best, this unit is looking more dangerous with three games remaining, including tonight’s.
The Rockets average only 114.8 PPG, but they’re eighth in OFFRTG and have some respectable numbers. Playmaking remains a significant weakness, but they’ve shown a greater willingness to pass the rock over this winning streak and have tweaked the offense into a more team-friendly attack that isn’t done justice by the 21st-most assists and 27th-ranked AST/TO ratio. They do, however, have the 10th-best FG% at 47.7% and are eighth in 3P% at 36.7%, though ranking third-to-last in attempts from beyond is a bit of an oxymoron. Still, Houston makes up for a sluggish pace and lack of perimeter shots with a league-leading OREB% and an NBA-best 48.0 total rebounds per game. The defense is suffocating, too, sitting sixth in DEFRTG while allowing only 109.8 PPG. The Rockets are third in blocks but 22nd in opponent turnovers.
This Houston group is almost entirely healthy beyond a couple of longer-term injuries and Tari Eason (illness), who is questionable to play. Alperen Sengun averages 20.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists while playing alongside Kevin Durant and his 25.9 PPG with elite shooting splits. Amen Thompson has had some hot nights lately with 18.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists, and Jabari Smith Jr. pitches in 15.8 points with 6.9 rebounds, too. Reed Sheppard brings 13.5 points and 3.4 assists, too.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as -10.5 favorites tonight on their home floor with -500 odds on the Moneyline. The Timberwolves are listed at +380 odds on the ML with the game total set at 224.5 combined points.
Top pick: HOU Rockets -10.5 (-110)
The injury status of Edwards and Reid will play a massive part in determining the outcome of this game, but if the former is ruled out, I really like the Rockets to cover here. While there’s still talent in the Minnesota rotation, the visitors could be looking at a starting five headlined by McDaniels, Dosunmu and DiVincenzo. That group downing a resurgent Houston roster isn’t a great proposition. The Rockets are playing their best ball at the moment and have covered this spread in five of their eight wins during this hot streak. They’re second in NETRTG at +16.6 over this sample size of eight contests and have notably played much cleaner basketball at fourth in AST/TO ratio and 11th in AST%. Getting better shots has been a massive part of this stretch of great form, so with the offense second in OFFRTG as well over this eight-game stretch, I think we’re looking at a fairly easy cover.
