How soon is too soon to panic in the MLB regular season? Asking for a friend. …a friend who is a Tigers fan.
After getting swept by the Twins on Thursday, Detroit has now lost five games in a row and nine of its last 11. The Tigers were heavily favored to win the AL Central coming into 2026, and now they sit at 4-9 in the middle of April. Not ideal!
Will a series with the Marlins help turn the corner? Let’s preview this tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Marlins vs. Tigers prediction, preview
One of the most surprising developments of the young season is just how well the Marlins are swinging the bats. The team enters play on Friday in possession of a .347 wOBA and a 117 wRC+, both of which rank as the fourth-best mark in MLB. The even crazier aspect? They’re doing all this without Kyle Stowers (hamstring), who was the club’s breakout star of 2025, or Christopher Morel (oblique), who was one of the few free agents the franchise actually spent a little money on this winter. Instead, the offensive charge is being led by a trio of Canadians, fresh off competing for their country in the World Baseball Classic. Owen Caissie is hitting .324 with a 174 wRC+. Liam Hicks ranks third in the league with 13 RBI. Otto Lopez is slashing .333/.400/.489 in his first 50 plate appearances of the season. This is all giving the term “snowbird” a new meaning.
All this to say, Friday will be a legitimate test for right-hander Keider Montero, who will be making just his second start of 2026. Montero is the definition of a Quad-A type pitcher, as he’s been passed back-and-forth from Triple-A to the majors for the better part of the past three years. Heck, the only reason he’s currently on the Tigers’ 26-man roster is because Justin Verlander (hip) is on the 15-day IL. In 193.1 career innings with Detroit, Montero owns a 4.96 xERA and a 4.99 FIP. His largest weakness is the home run ball — despite splitting his time in the always pitcher-friendly confines of Comerica Park. To wit, Montero’s surrendered a whopping 1.77 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs. That could be a real issue considering how much Miami loves a platoon bat.
The other man toeing the rubber in this matchup is Chris Paddack. It would be difficult to begin the season with two starts farther apart on the quality spectrum than we’ve seen from the veteran RHP so far in 2026. Paddack was ambushed in his first outing of the season, giving up eight earned runs in just four innings against the White Sox. Then, on April 5, Paddack somehow tossed 4.2 scoreless frames versus the Yankees. Go figure. The most recent appearance does feel like a bit of an outlier when you step back and view the 30-year-old’s career as a whole. Paddack was horrendous in 2025, as he finished as one of six pitchers with an xERA over 5.00 in at least 150 innings of work. He wasn’t much better in 2024. Woof.
Marlins vs. Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: YRFI (+100)
I don’t trust either starter and both are quite home run prone. Let’s assume we get some fireworks early.
Strong Lean: Owen Caissie 2+ Total Bases (+168)
In 30 plate appearances against RHPs, Caissie is slashing .333/.367/.667 with a 180 wRC+. He’s on fire at the moment, and Montero conceded a whopping .384 wOBA to opposing LHBs in 2025.
