All 30 NBA teams are in action tonight with the home stretch of the regular season upon us. Plenty of seeding implications are still on the line with the matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and the Cleveland Cavaliers at the forefront of this conversation.
This marks the second half of back-to-back matchups between these two Eastern Conference opponents and the final matchup between them this regular season. The Cavaliers picked up a 117-109 victory the first time these teams squared off, but the Hawks evened things up with a 130-123 win in November. Cleveland defeated them 122-116 on Wednesday at home, covering the 1.5-point spread in the process, and the two sides now travel to Atlanta for tonight’s game.
Looking at the standings, the Cavaliers currently sit in fourth place, while the Hawks are in sixth in the East. Atlanta is tied with Toronto in record, which sits in the fifth seed, and the Magic are just one game behind the two in the seventh seed. The results of tonight’s matchup will carry some significant seeding implications, and there is a solid chance these two teams end up squaring off in the opening round of the postseason.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Hawks enter as 7.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cavaliers hold +270 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 233.5.
Let’s dive into my preview and prediction for this Friday night matchup.
Cavaliers vs. Hawks preview, prediction
The Cleveland Cavaliers sit in fourth place in the Eastern Conference with a 51-29 overall record. They went through a midseason transformation by electing to trade for James Harden and send Darius Garland to the Clippers. Cleveland is one game behind the Knicks for the third seed in the East and cannot drop below the fourth seed. The Cavaliers enter this match on a four-game winning streak. On the season, the Cavs have gone a league-worst 32-48 against the spread, and the game total is 39-41 to the over/under.
Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Sam Merrill, and Thomas Bryant have each been ruled out for tonight’s game for the Cavaliers, shifting the outlook a bit, which is shown in the odds. Jaylon Tyson is also listed as probable with a bruised toe. James Harden will lead the charge and is averaging 20.6 points, 7.8 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game across his first 25 games with the organization. Evan Mobley pitches in averages of 18.3 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, while Sam Merrill, Keon Ellis, and Dennis Schroder each also play significant roles.
As a team, the Cavaliers rank fourth in the league in scoring by dropping 119.6 points per game. Cleveland also ranks sixth in offensive rating, seventh in field goal percentage, and 12th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.3 points per game against the Cavaliers, which ranks 15th in the league. Cleveland also ranks 15th in defensive rating, eighth in opponent field goal percentage, and 26th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Atlanta Hawks currently sit in sixth place in the Eastern Conference with a 45-35 overall record. They are tied with the Raptors in record, who will be facing the Knicks tonight, and have just a one-game advantage over the Magic behind them. Since pulling the plug on the Trae Young era at the midway point of the season, Atlanta has played some of its best basketball and established a clear new identity. Atlanta enters this game having won 18 of its last 22, although the group is coming off back-to-back losses. On the season, the Hawks have gone 43-37 against the spread, and the game total is exactly 40-40 to the over/under.
Jock Landale has been ruled out for tonight’s game, while Keshon Gilbert and RayJ Dennis are considered doubtful, making a fairly clean injury report. Jalen Johnson headlines the production, posting averages of 22.6 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has had a breakout season in a new location, adding 20.9 points, 3.7 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game. CJ McCollum adds 18.4 points and 4.1 assists across his first 40 games with the organization, while Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Jonathan Kuminga, and Zaccharie Risacher also play notable roles.
Quin Snyder’s group is scoring 118.4 points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Hawks also rank 14th in offensive rating, 13th in field goal percentage, and fifth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.9 points per game against Atlanta, which ranks 17th in the league. The Hawks also rank ninth in defensive rating, 17th in opponent field goal percentage, and 11th in opponent three-point percentage.
Cavaliers vs. Hawks prediction, best bet
The Cavaliers picked up the 122-116 victory on Wednesday between these two teams during a matchup in which both teams showed some encouraging flashes. Each team stretched a lead to double-digits during the matchup and produced fairly similar stat profiles. It was a two-point game with just 2:15 left to play, but Atlanta went scoreless over this final stretch with Jonathan Kuminga playing with a bit too much offensive ambition.
Cleveland does not seem to be approaching the second half of the back-to-back matchup with the same level of intensity, with Donovan Mitchell’s absence the most notable tell in this. The Cavaliers cannot drop below the fourth seed in the standings, and so much is up for grabs in seeds No. 5-9 in the East that they can’t exactly scout out their matchup just yet. With Atlanta in the mix for this, Cleveland seems content prioritizing rest for its top star and allowing the chips to fall as they may. This team cannot be counted out, especially with the Cavaliers sure to lean heavily on an offense of James Harden and Evan Mobley pick-and-rolls, but there is much more motivation from the Hawks’ perspective.
Count on Atlanta to bring its best effort right from the opening tip and treat this like a playoff matchup. The Hawks’ back-to-back losses are uncharacteristic considering the way they have played across the past few weeks, during which they have looked like one of the best reams in the league. Not only have they won 18 of their last 22, but they covered the spread in 16 of these matchups. The Hawks’ roster is loaded with high-level athletes who can wreak havoc on the defensive end and will have their sights set on slowing down James Harden at all costs.
Atlanta will have the benefit of returning home for this matchup, and the absence of Mitchell is the biggest factor in this game. Expect a clear effort to increase the tempo, get out in transition, and make this a fast-paced style of game as the Hawks can get up and down at a level the Cavaliers will struggle to match. Cleveland will provide some level of resistance in the early portions, but seems content splitting the back-to-backs and remaining where they sit in the standings. Motivation heavily favors the Hawks in this game, and their health advantage only adds to this. Expect Cleveland to allow this game to slip away in the second half and for the Hawks to get back on track by performing at a high level the way they have over these past few weeks to maximize their seeding outlook.
