We’ve got a Europa League rematch in the quarterfinals on Thursday. After facing one another in the group stage, Porto and Nottingham Forest face off in the first leg of the quarterfinals in Portugal.
Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Porto is a +110 favorite to win the first leg on DraftKings Sportsbook, and Forest sits at +265. There are +230 odds that the clubs leave the Estádio Do Dragão all knotted up.
Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for this Europa League tie.
Porto vs. Nottingham Forest prediction, pick
The first time these two teams met, they played a group-stage match at The City Ground in Nottingham. On the strength of two penalties, Nottingham were the victors, holding Porto off the scoresheet to secure a massive 2–0 victory. Much has changed for Nottingham since that victory, however. Locked into a relegation battle in the Premier League, they sacked their second manager of the season, Sean Dyche. Dyche presided over that win against Porto; now Vitor Pereira has the reins.
Interestingly, Pereira’s debut as Forest’s head man came before their first knockout-stage game against Fenerbahçe. That rousing 3-0 victory set the stage for his tenure, and they went on to advance 4-2 on aggregate. It was a bit nervier against FC Midtjylland in the next stage, dropping the first leg 1-0, but they battled back to tie things up in the second leg before securing a dramatic win in penalties. Now they’re inching closer to a trophy.
If Forest wants to win this one, it’s going to come from the middle of the pitch. Elliot Anderson, Manchester City’s new 65-million-pound man, has been one of the best duel-winning midfielders in Europe this season. Morgan Gibbs-White has excelled in his center-attacking midfield position. If those two can control possession and provide quality service to the outside, it can tilt the game in Forest’s favor.
Porto’s defense has been something to reckon with this season. They’ve allowed only 13 goals in 28 Liga Portugal matches, boasting one of Europe’s best backlines. It starts from the middle between Jan Bednarek and Jakub Kiwior, who have been excellent; Alberto Costa has been exceptional at defending and playing forward on the right side. The attack is another question, as they are awfully reliant on youngsters like Victor Froholdt and William Gomes to find the back of the net. But one thing is for sure: this defense won’t give much away.
Both sides are hard-pressed for scoring talent but have great midfield control and strong defensive back lines. I feel a Porto Excellence contest in the air: low-scoring, limited shot attempts, and a key goal to deliver the result.
