The Arizona Diamondbacks are visiting the New York Mets on Thursday, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET/4:10 p.m. PT. Nolan McLean will take the bump for the Mets, facing off against D-backs veteran Eduardo Rodriguez in Queens. Looking at the odds, lines and McLean’s strikeouts prop on DraftKings Sportsbook, here is a breakdown of how the rookie could perform in his third outing of the season.
Nolan McLean Strikeouts Prop
DraftKings Sportsbook currently has McLean’s strikeouts thrown line set at 5.5 for Thursday’s contest against the Diamondbacks.
Through two starts this season, McLean is 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA, 0.871 WHIP, 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a 0.0 WAR. He gave up four hits, two walks and two earned runs in 5.0 innings in his regular season debut on March 29, striking out eight. McLean allowed one hit, two walks, one earned run and two total runs across 5.1 innings at the Giants on April 3. The 24-year-old righty only struck out five in that outing, however. His fastball and breaking balls rank in the 62nd and 64th percentiles in run value, per Baseball Savant, while his off-speed pitches rank in the 88th percentile. And while his whiff percentage and strikeout rate rank in the 78th and 76th percentiles, his 19.8% chase percentage is only in the 9th percentile.
McLean started for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic final last month, giving up two runs with four strikeouts in 4.2 innings against Venezuela. Thursday’s showdown with the Diamondbacks constitutes a rematch of sorts, since Eduardo Rodriguez started that championship game for Venezuela.
Although McLean still has rookie eligibility, he already placed 11th in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2025. He made eight starts last season, going 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings and a 1.8 WAR.
Based on FanGraphs‘ Steamer model, McLean is projected to go 9-8 with a 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 165 strikeouts across 24 starts and 137.0 innings in the remainder of 2026. His 2.0 projected fWAR ranks No. 62 among MLB starters, while his projected 8.53 strikeouts per nine innings rank No. 91.
Nolan McLean picks, predictions
Over the course of his abbreviated debut season, McLean went over 5.5 strikeouts in seven of his eight appearances. He is now 8-for-10 in his career when it comes to clearing Thursday’s strikeout line. He has recorded at least five strikeouts in nine of his 10 MLB starts, averaging 6.9 punchouts per appearance, which makes for a pretty high floor. The righty has also lasted at least 5.0 innings in every single one of his major league appearances.
The Diamondbacks average the third-fewest strikeouts per game in the majors this season with just 7.25. Still, six of the 12 starters who faced Arizona have cleared 5.5 strikeouts, including David Peterson on Wednesday. The D-backs’ 83 OPS+ is also bottom-five in the big leagues, so I don’t expect them to chase McLean off the mound early. Since I feel pretty good about McLean going at least 5.0 innings deep Thursday, I think over 5.5 strikeouts is a pretty reliable bet.
