It’s deja vu all over again.
If you feel like you’ve just read a preview for Raptors versus Heat in Toronto — you have! This is a rematch of Tuesday’s tilt between these two Eastern Conference foes, with the Raptors easily picking up a 121-95 victory. Prior to that contest, both teams still had a shot at the five-seed in the East; however, with the loss, Miami has been officially relegated to the Play-In. Toronto, on the other hand, remains highly motivated to lock into a top-six seed. Another win tonight would go a long way towards that goal.
Can the Raptors sweep this mini series? Can the Heat get some revenge? Let’s preview this tilt with the help of some of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Heat at Raptors prediction, preview
Tuesday’s result was somehow abnormal and par for the course. Let me explain. The Heat are averaging 120.4 points per game this season. That’s the most of any Eastern Conference squad. They’ve only been held below 100 points six times throughout 2025-26. However, half of those occasions have come against the Raptors, who have now limited Miami to 96, 91 and 95 points, respectively. Is it random? Is it the Heat’s undersized guards struggling with the length of Toronto defense? Is it the combination of a lot of factors? Probably the latter. Still, the fact of the matter is that the Raptors have been Miami’s kryptonite all season long.
The Heat have also been notoriously streaky, and needless to say, they are not in an upswing at the moment. Miami is 3-8 in its last 11 contests, a span where the team is being outscored by 9.0 points per 100 possessions. The main issue? Defense. The Heat have managed the league’s second-worst defensive rating (126.7) in this time frame, with only the actively-tanking Grizzlies separating them from the absolute bottom of the barrel. The Raptors haven’t been setting the world ablaze lately, but compared to Miami? Any team would look functional.
Toronto also got some timely performances in Tuesday’s needed victory. Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram combined for 48 points on 19-for-32 (59.4%) shooting, including making five of their seven attempts from three-point range. For Barnes in particular, it was the first time that the forward registered at least 25 points since all the way back on February 8. The former Rookie of the Year has a legit case for third team All-NBA in 2025-26, yet that’s mostly due to his all-around effort on defense, the glass, and as a playmaker. However, if the Raptors are going to be anything more than first-round fodder in the playoffs, the team will need Barnes to embrace his role as a scorer just a little bit more going forward.
Heat at Raptors pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 236.5 (-108)
This total is down slightly from where it sat 48 hours ago, but it’s still an easy lean. Raptors’ games go under. That’s just how this works. In fact, Toronto has hit the under at a 62.0% clip in 2025-26 — the second-highest mark in the NBA. Odds say the Heat will finally break the 100-point plateau in a matchup with the Raptors, yet I also don’t expect Toronto to shoot 43% from three for a second contest in a row.
