The 37-42 Warriors will host the 50-29 Lakers tonight at 10 PM EST. The Lakers have listed Marcus Smart as Questionable, while Luka Doncic, Jaxson Hayes, and Austin Reaves are Out. The Warriors have listed Stephen Curry, Gui Santos, and Charles Bassey as Questionable. Al Horford, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis, Quinten Post, and Jimmy Butler will be Out.
The Warriors are 4.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 225.5 points.
Warriors vs. Lakers prediction, preview
The Lakers are walking into this one with a good record but an uncomfortable reality. They are 50-29 and still sitting in the West’s top tier, but with two of their best players out, the offense has snapped back into a much older LeBron shape. The Lakers are scoring 116.3 PPG on 50.0% shooting, generating 52.0 points in the paint per game, and posting the league’s best free-throw rate, so this is still a team that can get to efficient offense without bombing away from deep. But the new role for LeBron is obvious: he is back to being the primary playmaker rather than just the veteran co-star picking his spots. In the first game after Doncic and Reaves went down, he had a monster double double with 30 points, 15 assists, and 9 rebounds against Dallas; two days later, with James sitting for foot management, the Lakers scored a season-low 87 against Oklahoma City. This disparity is jarring and illustrates the Lakers’ reliance on James for their offense. When LeBron is available, the offense has life; when he is not, there’s just nobody else on the roster that can create any workable NBA-level offense. That is a lot to ask from a 41-year-old, even if the 41-year-old is LeBron James.
Golden State has a different problem. The Warriors are 37-42, but the interesting question tonight is not the record; it is what this team actually looks like now that Stephen Curry is back. The short answer: better, but not completely fixed. Curry returned Sunday after missing 27 games with a knee injury, and in the two games since then, Golden State is 1-1. Curry scored 29 in 26 minutes against Houston and 17 in the win over Sacramento. The offensive pulse is way cleaner with him. This is still a passing team, ranking fourth in APG and first in assists per made field goal. Curry’s return clearly gives the Warriors more gravity, more spacing, and less desperation on every trip. But Steve Kerr also admitted Curry had a ragged ballhandling game in the Kings win, and the surrounding roster is still missing a lot of scaffolding. So yes, Golden State has improved since Curry came back, but whether that’s enough for a serious playoff run is to be determined.
Warriors vs. Lakers pick, best Bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Lakers +4.5 (-110)
Despite the Lakers’ reliance on LeBron-ball, they’re still well equipped to cover the spread tonight due to Curry’s Questionable status. If he were to sit, that would greatly diminish Golden State’s ability to generate offense. Additionally, they’re mathematically guaranteed to make the Play-in tournament, while also unlikely to climb to the ninth seed given there’s only three games remaining and they’d need Portland to drop a 2.5-game advantage to them. It seems pertinent for the Warriors to give Curry some time off before the Play-in starts. The Lakers are tied with the Rockets for the fourth seed in the West and you can bet they’d love to grab that home court advantage.
