Who doesn’t love European knockout action? The UEFA Europa League rolls along on Thursday, with Freiburg welcoming Celta Vigo for the first leg of this quarterfinal tie. Who is going to start off this two-match affair on the right foot?
Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Freiburg is a +135 favorite to win the opening leg at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Celta Vigo is a +220 underdog. There are +225 odds that the teams will leave Germany all knotted up.
Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for this Europa League match.
Freiburg vs. Celta Vigo prediction, pick
Freiburg comes into this match on an interesting run of form. They dropped the first leg of the knockout stages against KRC Genk, 1-0, then obliterated them, 5-1, in the second leg. They’ve also advanced in their domestic competition, the DFB-Pokal. Freiburg also negotiated an important draw against Bayer Leverkusen and nearly beat German powerhouse Bayern Munich. All impressive results. But they’ve also had some frustrating results, dropping games against mid-table sides, Frankfurt and Union Berlin, while barely beating FC St. Pauli. It’s tough to pin down what kind of form they’ll be in for this game.
Meanwhile, Celta Vigo are on a strong run of form. They’ve lost only twice in their last 11 games, one of those being a close 2-1 defeat against Real Madrid. They faced PAOK Thessaloniki in the first knockout round, beating them in both legs. Against the French side Lyon, it was a closer-fought win, securing advancement with a 2-0 victory in the second leg. Celta Vigo have been a surprise team in La Liga this year, rarely dropping points as they threaten for a second straight year of European football.
If Freiburg wants to win here, the defense needs to step up. Their mix of veteran attackers and youngsters has worked well, but the back line has been porous. Someone other than center back Matthias Ginter has to pick up the slack and stop the easy scoring chances. For Celta Vigo, the middle of the pitch is the key; their two young center midfielders, Ilaix Moriba and Hugo Sotelo, are crucial to the possession battle. Wide backs/wingers Oscar Mingueza and Sergio Carreira must contribute to forward play while covering for an aging back line. Marcos Alonso is a key veteran presence at the back who must calm his younger teammates’ nerves.
The form is the key here. Freiburg has failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 straight matches, while Celta Vigo has not been held off the sheet in 12 matches. That kind of leakiness is tough to clean up overnight; expect Celta to steal the road leg and take command of this fixture before heading back home.
