What is going on in the American League?
Entering play on Thursday, only three teams in the AL having a winning record, and none of those three are the Tigers, the Mariners or the Blue Jays, all of whom were expected to compete for the pennant in 2026. Things have been particularly bleak for Detroit, as the team has lost eight of its 10 contests since starting the season 2-0 on the west coast.
Now, the Tigers will look to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Twins on Thursday, with first pitch scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Detroit is a -136 road favorite despite having lost its last four in a row.
Can Minnesota bring out the brooms? Let’s preview this matinee and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tigers vs. Twins prediction, preview
For as good as the top end of the Twins’ rotation has looked to begin this series, Mick Abel might be a different story. The crown jewel of the return in the Jhoan Duran trade at last year’s deadline, Abel has struggled mightily in his first two appearances in 2026, surrendering nine earned runs across 7.1 innings of work. You could point to a .538 opponent BABIP and start penciling in some positive regression, but the largest issue with Abel’s outings have been a complete inability to command his pitches. Case and point: A massive 16.7% walk rate. You can suppress opponent exit velocity and barrel rate; you can claim to be “unlucky” on the results of batted ball events; however, if you’re walking as many batters as you’re striking out — even in a small sample — there’s a problem.
Also, if there was ever a lineup that could take advantage of this flaw, it’s the Tigers. Detroit is in possession of a 10.6% walk rate as a team, which is a top 10 mark in baseball. More telling is the fact that the Tigers own MLB’s lowest chase rate at just 27.8% and the league’s third-lowest overall swing rate at 43.2%. This is a collection of bats that is willing to wait out a pitcher — they simply haven’t been able to consistently take advantage of the free passes that they’ve drawn. Detroit has just seven home runs through 12 games and the club’s .122 ISO ranks 24th among all teams. Kevin McGonigle’s hit the ground running and Dillon Dingler is backing up a breakout 2025 campaign, but the Tigers are getting very little from Javier Baez, Zach McKinstry and Riley Greene, who were all All-Stars last season. That will need to change if Detroit wants to dig itself out of this early hole.
The Tigers will need more from Jack Flaherty, as well. The veteran RHP is having an eerily similar start to his season as the aforementioned Abel, with Flaherty having walked as many opponents (8) as he’s struck out (8) across 8.1 innings of action. His 7.56 ERA and 8.42 xERA don’t look great, either. Flaherty has long been inconsistent as an asset in the rotation, often seeing his fastball velocity fluctuate from outing-to-outing. In 2025, the 30-year-old faced Minnesota only only time despite sharing a division. It was a rough showing, with Flaherty surrendering eight hits and six runs in 4.2 innings back on August 6. For some context, that was only days after the Twins essentially traded away half their roster at the deadline. Yikes.
Tigers vs. Twins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-144)
Both Flaherty and Abel have struggled to start the season, while these lineups have been above-average units to begin 2026 according to wRC+. There were 14 runs scored on Wednesday. We only need a little more than half that production this afternoon.
Strong Lean: Mick Abel Over 2.5 Walks (+108)
Abel has a 16.7% walk rate in his first two appearances of the season. The Tigers own MLB’s lowest chase rate (27.8%). This seems like a match made in free pass heaven.
