There are some games with major stakes today, as teams fight for playoff seeding. Others are only seeking better lottery odds ahead of what is expected to be a generational draft class.
Two of those teams — the Chicago Bulls and the Washington Wizards — will face off tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Wizards have the worst record in basketball and are guaranteed to have the best odds in the draft lottery, while the Bulls need to keep losing to stay ahead of (behind) the Milwaukee Bucks for the ninth-best odds.
Both teams have extremely lengthy injury reports. Matas Buzelis (illness), Zach Collins (toe), Noa Essengue (shoulder), Josh Giddey (hamstring), Isaac Okoro (quadricep), Nick Richards (elbow), Anfernee Simons (wrist), and Jalen Smith (calf) will all sit for Chicago. Washington, meanwhile, will be without Bilal Coulibaly (heel), Anthony Davis (finger), Kyshawn George (elbow), Jaden Hardy (back), Tre Johnson (foot/back), D’Angelo Russell (not with team), Alex Sarr (toe), Tristan Vukevic (knee), Cam Whitmore (shoulder), and Trae Young (back).
Despite all the injuries, the Bulls are 6.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-258 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 248.5. The Wizards are +210 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this clash and offer a prediction.
Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards preview, prediction
Despite its overall respectable position as the East’s 11th seed, Chicago shouldn’t be mistaken for a competent basketball team. Since January 26, the Bulls are just 7-27, and they just fired President of Basketball Operations Artūras Karnišovas and General Manager Marc Eversley. Chicago finally made moves at the trade deadline, dealing away Nikola Vučević and Coby White, but several of the players it received in return haven’t panned out: Jaden Ivey played just four games before being released, and Rob Dillingham hadn’t shown much until dropping 26 points in Tuesday’s win over Washington.
The Wizards have somehow been even worse. Since the All-Star break, Washington has gone just 3-23, and it has only given up fewer than 120 points four times. The investment that the Wizards made in Bub Carrington last season hasn’t yielded any fruit, as Carrington has scored more than 16 points only once. Instead, Washington has gotten contributions from a litany of two-way and 10-day players, with Julian Reese and Leaky Black both impressing in starting roles. Reese has recorded four double-doubles in 10 games and could conceivably be part of Washington’s rotation next season.
Bulls at Wizards pick, best bet
The numbers for both teams since the All-Star break are pretty astounding. Across that span, the Bulls rank third-to-last in offensive rating and 11th-to-last in defensive rating, and the Wizards rank fourth to last offensively and third-to-last defensively. Among players on either team with at least 200 minutes played and an on-court net rating better than negative-10.0, only Jamir Watkins (Washington), Justin Champagnie (Washington), Lachlan Olbrich (Chicago), Leonard Miller (Chicago), Collin Sexton (Chicago), and Dillingham (Chicago) are set to be available.
Neither team has provided very much resistance on the interior. Since the All-Star break, the Wizards have given up a league-high 37.4 attempts per game within five feet, and the Bulls have allowed 33.3. To be fair, Chicago has limited opponents to a below-average percentage on such shots, but without Smith — who ranks in the 95th percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions — the Bulls are likely to be worse there. Chicago should have a huge advantage on the interior, as even since the All-Star break, it has attempted the third-most layups per game. Despite being without Buzelis and Giddey, the Bulls will have Tre Jones, who has averaged more shots within five feet than any other player listed at six-foot-one or shorter.
Chicago has also been significantly better on the glass. Since the All-Star break, Washington ranks third-to-last in rebounding percentage — even with Reese, who had 20 rebounds in his third career game — while the Bulls have been roughly league-average, though they could certainly be worse without Buzelis and Smith. Additionally, both of these teams rank among the bottom 10 in points off of turnovers, opponent points off of turnovers, and opponent fast-break points, though Chicago has at least averaged among the most fast-break points even since the All-Star break. It has also been more disciplined and drawn more fouls, but the bar is extremely low.
The Bulls’ shot diet is more sustainable. In addition to attempting more layups, Chicago has still generated the eighth-most wide-open threes per game since the All-Star break, and it’s gotten fairly unlucky to have connected at the sixth-lowest rate. The Bulls still have some raw shooting talent: Jones was at 39.6% from deep last season on limited volume, and Mac McClung has connected on 39.7% on his threes throughout his illustrious G-League career. The Wizards might not have any decent shooters with Johnson out, though Carrington has actually made 39.5% of his triples since the All-Star break. Washington has also allowed among the most wide-open threes in the league, so while the Wizards have experienced some poor shooting luck this season, they haven’t helped themselves.
Both teams are bad, but there are several levels of bad. While Chicago has made plenty of mistakes, at least the Bulls have a grasp of the fundamentals: being competitive on the boards, hustling, and closing out on opposing shooters. Washington has allowed the easiest shots in the game without creating such looks itself. The Wizards looked truly hapless in their 31-point loss on Tuesday, and I can’t imagine tonight’s result will be much better.
