The 60-19 Spurs will host the 40-39 Trail Blazers tonight at 9:30 PM EST. The Trail Blazers have listed Shaedon Sharpe and Vit Krejci as Doubtful, while Jerami Grant and Damian Lillard remain Out. The Spurs will be without Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, which unfortunately removes a ton of their defensive capabilities.
The Spurs are 3.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 228.5 points.
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers prediction, preview
San Antonio is clearly still the superior team here, even with Wemby and Castle out. Their absences strip away the Spurs’ best rim deterrent and one of their most important young playmakers and defenders. Even so, the broader profile is hard to miss: San Antonio is 60-19, 30-7 at home, has won 12 of its last 13, and is still chasing Oklahoma City for the league’s best record. To say that they’ve overachieved this season would be an understatement. Their game play has real structure behind it, too. The Spurs are fourth in offensive rating at 118.6, third in defensive rating at 110.2, second in net rating at 8.5, fifth in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.1, and seventh in effective field-goal percentage at 55.9. San Antonio is scoring 119.6 PPG, generating 16.3 fastbreak points and 51.8 points in the paint per game, while allowing only 111.5 points overall, 12.8 fastbreak points, and 46.1 opponent points in the paint.
Portland, though, is not a free win right now. The Blazers are 40-39, have won eight of their last 11, and are still chasing the Clippers for the eighth seed, so this game has real urgency on their side. Their statistical profile is different from San Antonio’s. Portland is scoring 115.6 PPG, grabbing 56.2 RPG, and allowing 116.1 points. The Blazers are third in offensive rebound percentage at 35.3 and seventh in pace at 101.8, which tracks for a young team that scraps in transition and with second chances. Donovan Clingan is a huge reason why, and he recently had 18 points and 12 rebounds against Denver, while Portland buried a franchise-record 25 threes in that overtime loss. Clingan’s made some nice improvements to his game over the offseason, doubling his PPG from last season to 12.1 this season with a league-leading 4.5 offensive rebounds. He’s also managed to play 74 games with 1.7 BPG, and he figures to be a key piece for Portland next season. Deni Avdija remains the all-around offensive engine statistically with a strong 24 PPG, 7 RPG, and 6.7 APG.
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers pick, best Bet
Best Bet: Trail Blazers +3.5 (-115)
I’m not sure how much urgency exists on San Antonio’s side, because they’re mathematically unable to pass the Thunder for the first seed and are also unable to drop to the third seed. Their place in the West is locked up and they’re looking to enter the postseason with their roster health intact. Portland, however, could feasibly catch the eighth seeded Clippers and are likely going to try to go for it. The Spurs don’t have much to play for and are clearly resting relatively healthy players. I’d count on Portland to cover here.
