The 57-22 Pistons will host the 31-48 Bucks tonight at 7 PM EST. The Pistons have listed Cade Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart as Questionable. The Bucks have not yet submitted their injury report.
The Pistons are 19.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 221.5 points.
Pistons vs. Bucks prediction, preview
Detroit’s edge starts with the fact that its strengths line up almost perfectly against Milwaukee’s current weaknesses. The Pistons have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the East at 57-22, and even with Cade Cunningham still carrying a Q tag, this team has kept humming because the supporting pieces fit together nicely. Jalen Duren has taken a huge leap this season and has earned his first All-Star appearance with 19.5 PPG and 10.6 RPG. He gives the Pistons a constant rim target. The numbers paint a very specific picture of how they win: Detroit is scoring 117.3 PPG, allowing just 109.6, generating 57.7 points in the paint, 17.7 fastbreak points, and 55.6 RPG. They’re doing this while holding opponents to 43.9 points in the paint, 23.4 APG, and 50.7 RPG. The Pistons are 10th in OFFRTG, second in DEFRTG, fourth in NETRTG, and fourth in offensive rebound percentage.
Milwaukee’s been a dumpster fire all season long. They can still shoot, but so much of their game has eroded. They are scoring 110.5 PPG and allowing 116.6, but the shape of their offense is interesting: Milwaukee is making 15.0 threes per game and ranks second in 3-point percentage and third in eFG%, yet they are also generating only 41.9 points in the paint, 11.8 fastbreak points, 49.6 RPG, 19.0 FTA, and 8.8 ORPG. That is a low-rim-pressure, low-second-chance offense leaning hard on perimeter accuracy. On the other end, the Bucks are allowing 27.7 APG, 53.6 RPG, and 14.8 3PM, which is part of why the defense has been so fragile whenever the shotmaking cools. The roster uncertainty just tightens that. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been in and out all season long, and has recently resorted to perhaps burning bridges with the Bucks, a contrived dramatic episode in which all parties look bad in a “he said, she said” war. The league is still investigating the Bucks’ handling of Giannis’ injury. That leaves Doc Rivers trying to piece together offense from AJ Green’s shooting and Taurean Prince’s glue minutes, which doesn’t seem to be a sustainable path towards success.
Pistons vs. Bucks pick, best Bet
Best Bet: DET Pistons -19.5 (-110)
Due to the Bucks’ reliance on three point shooting and the desolate state of their roster, it’s tough to rely on them to cover the spread tonight against a Pistons team that may be getting their best player back. I’m comfortable trusting the Pistons to cover this spread tonight.
