Leading off tonight’s seven-game NBA slate, the Atlanta Hawks will face off with the Cleveland Cavaliers. This is the first half of back-to-back matchups between these two Eastern Conference opponents, and holds some additional weight with the pair currently slotted as the 4th and 5th seeds for the postseason.
These two sides have faced off twice already this season, but not since November 28th. The Cavaliers picked up a 117-109 win in the first matchup, and the Hawks evened things up with a 130-123 win in the second game.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Cavaliers enter as narrow 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hawks hold +100 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 236.5.
Let’s dive into my preview and prediction for this Wednesday night matchup.
Hawks vs. Cavaliers preview, prediction
The Atlanta Hawks look to be peaking at the right time after a midseason transformation in which they pulled the plug on the Trae Young era. They currently sit in fifth place in the East with a 45-34 record on the year, and hold a one-game advantage over the Raptors in the sixth seed. Atlanta enters this game having won 18 of their last 21, but is looking to bounce back from a loss to the Knicks in the previous game. On the season, the Hawks have gone 43-36 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 40 of their 79 games.
Jock Landale is the only player expected to miss the matchup tonight. Jalen Johnson headlines the production, posting averages of 22.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has had a breakout season in a new location, adding 20.8 points, 3.7 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game. CJ McCollum adds 18.6 points and 4.1 assists across his first 39 games with the organization, while Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Jonathan Kuminga, and Zaccharie Risacher also play notable roles.
Quin Snyder’s group is scoring 118.4 points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Hawks also rank 14th in offensive rating, 13th in field goal percentage, and fifth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.8 points per game against Atlanta, which ranks 17th in the league. They also rank ninth in defensive rating, 18th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 10th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Cleveland Cavaliers sit in fourth place in the East with a 50-29 overall record. After taking a step back from last season’s stellar record, the organization shook things up by trading for James Harden in a deal centered around Darius Garland at the midpoint of the season. There have been some encouraging early signs, and they enter this matchup having won eight of their last 12. On the season, Cleveland has gone a league-worst 31-48 against the spread, and the game total is 38-41 to the over/under.
Thomas Bryant has been ruled out for tonight’s matchup due to a left calf strain, while Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, and Jaylon Tyson are listed as questionable. Mitchell headlines the production for this Cleveland team, posting averages of 27.8 points, 5.7 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game. James Harden is adding 20.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game across his first 24 games played. Evan Mobley pitches in averages of 18.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, while Jarrett Allen, Sam Merrill, Keon Ellis, and Dennis Schroder each also play significant roles.
As a team, the Cavaliers rank fourth in the league in scoring by dropping 119.6 points per game. Cleveland also ranks sixth in offensive rating, seventh in field goal percentage, and 12th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.3 points per game against the Cavaliers, which ranks 14th in the league. Cleveland also ranks 15th in defensive rating, eighth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 26th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Hawks vs. Cavaliers prediction, best bet
Not much can be taken away from the first two matchups between these two teams, given how much roster turnover there has been on both sides since this point. It is also important to note that if the season ended today, this would be the opening round matchup in the postseason. Cleveland has clinched a playoff opportunity and could theoretically climb to the third seed, but cannot drop below the fourth seed. In contrast, the Hawks hold a narrow one-game lead for the fifth seed and are fighting to remain above a few surging teams.
Expect this level of motivation to carry over, especially given the level the Hawks are currently playing at. Not only has Atlanta won 18 of their past 21 games, they have covered the spread in 16 of these matchups. The Hawks are also 21-17 against the spread as an underdog this year. In contrast, Cleveland has failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 games as a favorite following a win. Keep an eye on the names listed as questionable, but it would not be a complete shock if the Cavaliers elect to prioritize rest with the knowledge that they may face this team in the opening postseason round.
Atlanta’s roster is loaded with high-level athletes, which will be a concern for James Harden attempting to create separation. This is a Cavaliers team that is still working to get fully on the same page ahead of the postseason run, and the flaws come out in their lack of chemistry at times. Cleveland’s defense has failed to live up to the level it should on paper all season, and Atlanta will exploit this.
The Hawks have looked like one of the best teams in basketball these past few months and deserve more respect than they are getting. Expect them to make a clear effort to push the tempo and score at a rate that Cleveland’s defense cannot contain. Atlanta has played with the necessary level of desperation of late and shown that they can win in various ways. The Cavaliers have not consistently looked like a team capable of stopping a team at the level of this current Hawks team, with defense being the leading issue. Count on Jalen Johnson to lead the charge and for the Hawks to do everything possible to remain in the fifth seed by getting a win tonight.
