The expanded 36-team Champions League format was created partially with the goal of creating more high-profile matchups earlier in the season, and these stacked quarterfinals are a result. Last season’s winners, Paris Saint-Germain, will face defending Premier League title-holders Liverpool in one quarterfinal, and the winner will have to take on either Real Madrid or Bayern Münich just to make the final.
The first leg of the quarterfinal tie between the French and English champions will begin at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) on Wednesday at the Parc des Princes. The return leg is set for 3 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) next Tuesday at Anfield.
Les Parisiens are -135 favorites to win the opening leg at DraftKings Sportsbook (-190 to advance to the semifinals), and the Reds are +330. There are +320 odds that the teams will head to England all square.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Liverpool prediction, pick
Just as it did last season, Paris had a relatively quiet start to the Champions League before turning it on late, while Liverpool has been strong from the get-go. Les Parisiens suffered defeats to Bayern and Sporting Lisbon in the League Phase, forcing them to go through the Knockout Playoffs for the second consecutive season. But after edging past Ligue 1 rivals Monaco in the playoff round, PSG thrashed Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate, emphatically stating its readiness for a title defense. On the other hand, the Reds had a much more comfortable run through the League Phase, notching six wins and two losses, and they advanced past Galatasaray 4-1 on aggregate despite losing the first leg 1-0. However, Liverpool’s domestic form has been far more disappointing than Les Parisiens’, which isn’t confidence-inspiring even though it isn’t directly relevant to the Champions League.
PSG’s roster hardly needs any introduction. Les Parisiens have five different players who have scored at least 10 goals in all competitions, with Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé (14) leading the way. Though Dembélé has had a quiet UCL campaign (two goals), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (seven) and Vitinha (six) have more than picked up the slack, and Achraf Hakimi has five assists. No team has scored more goals than Paris’ 34 or attempted more shots on target than its 90, and only four other teams have generated better chances. Les Parisiens also lead all teams in completion percentage on passes into the final third. Defensively, they’ve also been solid, giving up the eighth-fewest expected goals and sixth-fewest shots on target per match while winning both ground and aerial duels at top-11 rates. Thanks to their high press, they lead all clubs in high turnovers ending in a shot. Plus, as of late, Matvei Safonov has been elite between the sticks, saving nine shots in the second leg against the Blues.
The Reds have a talented squad on paper, but they’ve displayed less match-to-match consistency than PSG. Only three Liverpool players have reached the double-digit goals mark in all competitions, with Hugo Ekitike leading the way with 17. Club record signing Alexander Isak has been a disappointment, managing just three goals before suffering a broken leg against Tottenham on December 20, and while he could be ready to return this afternoon, it’s hard to expect much of him after such a long layoff. To be fair, the Reds might not need him, given that they’ve produced chances worth the second-most expected goals and attempted the second-most shots on target. They’ve also generated the most free kicks, fast-breaks, and headers. Defensively, Liverpool has also been impressive, allowing the second-fewest expected goals, second-fewest shots on target, and lowest shot-in-box percentage per match. But the Reds haven’t been perfect, as they’ve won ground duels at the second-lowest rate, and they’ll have to start backup goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, whose overall save percentage is some 18 percentage points lower than Alisson’s.
Overall, Liverpool’s raw stats are a little bit better than Paris’ on both sides of the ball, but I’m going with the defending champions regardless. Les Parisiens have stellar dribblers and should be able to take advantage of the Reds’ poor ground-duel performance, and Mamardashvili is just 7-1-14 in his starts for Liverpool and Georgia this season. The Reds lost to Galatasaray with Mamardashvili in between the sticks, so it’s hard to imagine them doing much better at the Parc de Princes. PSG is peaking, scoring at least three goals in each of their last four games.
