You’re forgiven if you feel like you’ve been a little checked out on the NBA the past few weeks. March Madness was happening. The baseball season started. There was a lot going on the in sports world, and it’s the time of the year when professional basketball begins to reek of tanking.
However, we now have six days left in the NBA regular season and there’s some real stakes — especially in a matchup like this one. The Raptors and the Heat will square-off on Tuesday for the first contest in a back-to-back set in Toronto. What’s on the line? Well, how about a guaranteed playoff spot? Entering today’s action, both the Raptors and the Heat can finish as high as the five-seed and as low as the 10-seed in the Eastern Conference. Get excited, people. This is like the Play-In for the Play-In.
Can Toronto defend home court? Will Miami get hot at the right time? Let’s preview this tilt with the help of some of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Heat at Raptors prediction, preview
I’m hesitant to say that either of these teams is playing “good” basketball as we enter the homestretch of the NBA’s regular season. Both the Raptors and the Heat are 7-8 over their past 15 contests, with Toronto ranking 15th in net rating (+3.4) and Miami sitting 19th (-2.2). However, both squads also seem to be getting healthier at exactly the right time. All-Star Norman Powell (illness) is set to return from a four-game absence on Tuesday, while Immanuel Quickley (foot) is listed as questionable for the Raptors, giving the guard a chance to play for the first time March 22.
That said, the return of Powell won’t likely do much to help the Heat’s defense, and that’s truly where this team has struggled in the latter half of 2025-26. To wit, Miami has allowed a whopping 127.5 opponent points per 100 possessions over its last 10 games, which happens to be the third-worst mark in the league within that span. In fact, it’s only better than the Kings and the Grizzlies, two organizations that are the midst of clear tank jobs and are essentially employing G League rotations. In other words: Not the kind of company a playoff contender wants to be keeping.
Toronto’s woes are more on the offensive side of the ledger. The Raptors’ 114.6 offensive rating is pretty middle-of-the-road for the season as a whole, but this is a roster that can go through serious scoring lulls. The largest issue is the team’s inability to get consistent production from beyond the arc. Toronto ranks 26th in the NBA in three-pointers made per contest (11.3), as almost half its rotation are below-average distance shooters. That includes Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, Collin Murray-Boyles and Jamal Shead. This is a club that desperately needs someone to space the floor in the half-court, which makes the regression of former lottery pick Gradey Dick even more depressing.
These squads met twice back in December in Miami, with the Raptors taking both meetings pretty handily and holding the Heat to an average of only 93.5 points. That’s quite the defensive performance when you consider that Miami leads in the NBA in points per home game this season (123.0), an honor that is primarily tied to a league-high pace (104.4). Conversely, the Heat average 118.4 points per contest on the road, where they are 16-22 in their 38 prior matchups.
Heat at Raptors pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 240.5 (-108)
While I understand how uptempo the Heat play, and how that can translate into some explosive offensive outbursts, this feels like a huge number for a game that involves the Raptors. Toronto’s strength is its defense and it stymied Miami in the teams’ earlier two matchups in December. The Raptors are also 48-30 to the under this season — one of only three squads in the NBA hitting the under at a clip above 60%.
