There’s a real argument that Bayern Münich and Real Madrid have been two of the five best football teams on the planet this season and that they have the two best players in the world, either of whom could ultimately lift the Ballon d’Or in the fall. Yet one team’s Champions League journey will come to an end next Wednesday, since they’re set to face off in the quarterfinals.
The first leg will kick off at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) at Estadio Bernabeu in Madrid. The return leg is slated for the same time next Wednesday, and the winner across two legs will advance to a two-legged tie against the winner of Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool at the end of the month.
Despite how talented each defense is, there are so many brilliant attackers on both teams that it’s likely there will be at least one goal early on. Given how key momentum is in football, both teams will likely be aggressive from the get-go.
Bayern is a +125 favorite to win the first leg on DraftKings Sportsbook (-240 to advance to the semifinals), and Los Blancos are +180 (+185 to advance). There are +300 odds that the teams will return to Germany knotted.
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Unsurprisingly, each team’s Ballon d’Or contender has relatively short odds to find the back of the net first. Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé has +400 odds, while Die Roten’s Harry Kane is right behind him (+425). Five of the eight players with the next-shortest odds, though, play for the Bavarian giants: Luis Díaz (+750), Nicolas Jackson (+800), Michael Olise (+950), Serge Gnabry (+1100), and Jamal Musiala (+1100). Los Blancos are represented by Vinicius Júnior (+800), Gonzalo García (+1100), and Brahim Díaz (+1100).
Mbappé’s and Kane’s status as the favorite makes sense. Mbappé has been a goal-scoring machine in the Champions League so far, netting 13 times in nine games to close in on Cristiano Ronaldo’s 17-goal record in 2013-14. He also leads La Liga with 23 goals in 27 matches, four ahead of Mallorca’s Vedat Muriqi. Kane, meanwhile, has been even more dominant domestically, smashing home 31 goals in 26 games in the Bundesliga, but his Champions League pace (10 goals in nine games) has been slightly more muted. With Opta Analyst considering La Liga a stronger competition than the Bundesliga, it’s arguable that Mbappé’s tally is more impressive, but both players have been clinical regardless.
Bayern’s defense is more trustworthy; so far in the Champions League, Die Roten have given up chances worth just 11.94 expected goals, the sixth-lowest per-match figure in the competition. Madrid, on the other hand, has allowed just the 16th-worst chances. Bayern has also been far less vulnerable to fast-breaks, so it’s more likely that Kane will find himself in a one-on-one situation with the goalkeeper than Mbappé. Die Roten also have a higher pass completion percentage, so they should be more suited to set up Kane than Los Blancos will Mbappé. Madrid might have a slight goalkeeping edge through Thibaut Courtois, but with Manuel Neuer returning from injury, he should be as well-suited to stop Mbappé as anyone.
Of course, it’d hardly be a surprise if any member of either team’s front three manages to find the back of the net first, but when considering each squad, Kane is simply the best bet.
