By the time Barcelona and Atletico Madrid face off next Tuesday afternoon with a spot in the Champions League semifinals on the line, they’ll surely be sick of facing each other. In addition to two matchups in La Liga, they’ve played a two-legged tie in the Copa del Rey semifinals, and they’ll play another two times in the next week in the UCL. That makes six matchups between the two clubs this season, tied for the most matches between any two squads in a single season.
The first leg will kick off at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) at the Camp Nou. The return leg is slated for the same time next Tuesday at the Estadio Metropolitano, and the winner across two legs will advance to a two-legged tie against either Arsenal or Sporting Lisbon with a spot in the final on the line.
In the teams’ previous matchups, there have been plenty of goals, with Atleti managing a 4-3 aggregate victory in the Copa del Rey and the Blaugrana scoring a total of five goals across two La Liga matches. It’s likely that there will be multiple goals in Wednesday’s match, but which player will draw first blood? I’ll break it down.
Barça is a -180 favorite to win the first leg on DraftKings Sportsbook (-270 to advance to the semifinals), and Los Colchoneros are +400 (+210 to advance). There are +390 odds that the teams will draw.
Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid First Goalscorer Pick
The fairly lopsided odds for the game are reflected in the first goalscorer market. Blaugrana players account for each of the four players with the shortest odds of finding the back of the net first, with Robert Lewandowski (+425) leading the way and Ferrán Torres (+450), Lamine Yamal (+500), and Roony Bardghji (+600) following closely behind. Then, the two players at +750 both play for Atlético Madrid (Alexander Sørloth and Antoine Griezmann), while Barcelona’s Marcus Rashford (+800) and Dani Olmo (+850) follow.
If a member of the Blaugrana strikes first, it’ll be someone new. Neither Barcelona player who netted first in the teams’ first four matches will even suit up tonight, as Marc Bernal and Raphinha are both out with injuries. The best bet might well be Rashford, who scored the first Barça goal in the teams’ La Liga clash on Saturday. Given that he started in Raphinha’s position and played 79 minutes, he should be in line for a large workload again if Hansi Flick opts for a similar game plan. Yamal, who leads the Blaugrana with 21 goals in all competitions, is always an option, especially now that he appears to have become the team’s primary penalty taker. As for Atleti, Julian Álvarez (+1000) could be the best value option, given that he only narrowly trails Sørloth for the team lead in goals.
Neither team’s defense is great, but Los Colchoneros have been somewhat more leaky. In the Champions League, Barcelona has allowed merely the 11th-fewest expected goals per match, while Atlético Madrid has conceded the 14th-most per match. In La Liga, it’s a different story, with Atleti allowing slightly fewer expected goals. However, the Blaugrana’s high press could prove a challenge for Los Colchoneros’ relatively patient attack, and Joan García has the edge in between the sticks over Jan Oblak.
