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Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich prediction, pick for Tuesday 4/7/26

Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich prediction, pick for Tuesday 4/7/26

Published:

By: Ciaran Doyle

The UEFA Champions League quarter-finals start on Tuesday as Bayern Munich will travel to Spain to take on Real Madrid.

Bayern are slight +120 favorites on the moneyline, while a draw is available at +300. Fancy a Real Madrid upset? They are +190 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook.

In terms of odds to advance to the semi-finals, Bayern Munich are a huge favorite at -240, while Real Madrid are listed at +185.

Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich Prediction, Pick

For this bet to hit, we need Real Madrid to win. If the game ends in a tie, the bet will void. This matchup is arguably the best of the four quarter-finals.

Real Madrid aren’t at their best domestically this season, but are inevitable in this competition. On the other hand, Bayern are in red-hot form and look like arguably the best team in Europe. One of these teams will progress to the semi-finals to face PSG or Liverpool, and the other will be disappointed to go out of the competition this early. Don’t get it twisted, both of these teams are more than capable of lifting the trophy in May.

Let’s start with the home team. Real Madrid are not in the best form domestically right now, but they did beat Man City in both legs of the Round of 16 matchup. Los Blancos always show up for these big European nights, and I’d be shocked if they didn’t give Bayern Munich a run for their money on Tuesday. They’ve won nine of their 12 total UCL games so far this season, losing three. In six home games, they’ve won five. In four knockout games so far, they’ve won all four against Benfica and Man City. When the stakes are the highest in the Champions League, Madrid show up and they have done so as well so far this season.

On the other hand, there’s Bayern Munich. They are flying high in the Bundesliga, nine points clear. In the Champions League they are also dominating, finishing second in the League Phase, followed by a 10-2 demolition over Atalanta in the Round of 16. Although the competition will be much tougher facing Real Madrid, Bayern are a formidable opponent.

These teams met up most recently in the 2023/24 semi-finals, where Real Madrid advanced 4-3 on aggregate. Los Blancos did what they usually do at the Bernabéu, winning 2-1. Although I’m not sure they will have enough to advance, Real Madrid are historically tough to beat at home. I think Los Blancos either win or draw the first leg, before ultimately losing the second leg in Germany and getting knocked out of the competition.

Best Bet: Real Madrid Tie No Bet (+120)

Ciaran has been an editor for the DraftKings Network team since 2023. He graduated from the University of Arizona before attending Arizona State University for his master’s degree in sports journalism. Ciaran previously covered Phoenix Rising FC for Cronkite News before joining DraftKings. He is passionate about sports betting, and his biggest focus has always been on the NFL and soccer. You can find him on X at @Ciaran_Doyle7.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.