We’ve got a massive 12-game slate for Tuesday’s MLB action.
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $250K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, $10,500 — There are a ton of good pitching options on this slate, and I thought about saving some salary, but I’m going to stay with Skubal despite it being three straight road starts. In the first two starts of the season, Skubal shut down San Diego and Arizona, going six and seven innings while allowing only one total earned run without walking a batter. He did only strike out nine total batters over two starts for a paltry 19.1% strikeout rate on the season. Small sample size alert! I have no doubt he gets back into the 30% range, and that could start in this one, as Minnesota is sixth in strikeouts at 27.1%. In addition, the Twins are 23rd in wOBA and 24th in wRC+.
Value
Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $5,700 — Cavalli also started the season with two road starts. In the opener against the Cubs, he lasted only 3.2 innings, allowing two earned runs, walking three and striking out five. Against Philadelphia, he went 6.0 innings, allowed only one earned run, walked two and struck out three. Now Cavalli makes his first home start against the Cardinals, a team that is 27th in wOBA and 25th in wRC+. While Cavalli likely won’t strikeout many batters, as he has a career 19% strikeout rate, he put up double-digit FPTS in each of the first two starts and will likely get there again in this one. He’s too cheap.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs. Athletics, $6,300 — Judge has gotten off to a somewhat slow start. The walk rate is only 7.5% while the strikeout rate is 32.5%. Those numbers have been around 19% and 24% respectively over the last three seasons. The ISO is .278, after being in the .350 range. He’s slashing only .250/.325/.528. The last two seasons, Judge slashed around .325/.450/.690. He’s going to get hot. It’s just a matter of when, not if. Over the last two seasons, Aaron Civale has a FIP around 4.7 with a HR/9 around 1.5. Throughout his career, Civale has had reverse splits, as righties have been more successful against him. The K/9 is only 6.94 while the HR/9 is 1.36. The FIP is 4.5. Against lefties, those numbers are 9.31, 1.3 and 4.01.
Value
TJ Rumfield, Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros, $3,200 — Rumfield has gotten off to a good start in his MLB career. In 32 plate appearances, he’s slashing .345/.406/.586 with a .241 ISO. The walk rate is 9.4% while the strikeout rate is 21.9%. He has been fortunate with a .400 BABIP, though, so some regression is to be expected. Now, the average exit velocity is only 84.3 mph while the barrel rate is only 4.5%. The launch angle is 18.5 degrees, though. He’s only played three games at Coors Field and has one home run at home. Rumfield is batting fifth in the lineup and will face Mike Burrows, who’s already allowed two home runs in 10.2 innings this season.
INFIELD
Stud
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies, $5,500 — Altuve still has it at 36 years old. He’s currently slashing .344/.523/.594 with a .250 ISO in 44 plate appearances. The walk rate is a hefty 27.3% while the strikeout rate is only 15.9%. The average exit velocity of 89.3 mph and 8% barrel rate are career-highs. It’s a small sample size for sure, but now he gets to bat in Coors Field against Kyle Freeland, who is much less effective against right-handed batters than lefties.
Value
Mauricio Dubon, Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels, $3,100 — Dubon is slashing .333/.371/.485 with a .152 ISO in 35 plate appearances. The average exit velocity is 90.7 mph while the barrel rate is 7.4%. I’m not buying any of it, especially since the bat speed is only 69.5 mph and the BABIP is an elevated .385. That said, he’s on a heater and gets to face Yusei Kikuchi, who has a career 1.6 HR/9 and 4.69 FIP against right-handed batters. Dubon has a career .151 ISO and 111 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
