We’re officially entering the third week of the MLB season, meaning we’re beginning to see statistical blips turn into trends as the sport’s pecking order comes into full focus. On Monday night, a formidable Milwaukee Brewers (7-2) squad battles the Boston Red Sox (2-7) at Fenway Park. The home side is really struggling to open the new year, but what are the odds they can turn things around against a top team?
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Brewers vs. Red Sox matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Milwaukee Brewers
There’s only one team in the National League with a record that matches the Brewers’ through nine games — the Los Angeles Dodgers. That should put Milwaukee’s hot start into perspective given that the group has handily won each of its first three series, but here are some stats in case you need further convincing. The Brewers are second in runs per game (6.67) and third in OPS (.815) among the entire sport. A slash line of .267/.369/.446 is obviously elite, and they’re third in ISO (.178) while bashing 10 homers as well. They’re also second in BB/K ratio at 0.59 thanks to a 13.5% BB%, too. Oh, and they’re doing all that without Jackson Chourio, who batted .270 with a .770 OPS last season but remains on IL due to injury. The Brewers’ pitching staff has also yielded some standout numbers such as a 30.7% K% that ranks second in the MLB, and a 3.38 ERA and 1.30 WHIP certainly aren’t bad, either. However, the lone concern is that perhaps they’ve outperformed a 4.27 FIP.
Boston Red Sox
Through the early days of the new season, the Red Sox have trended in the opposite direction. At 2-7, they’re in sole possession of the worst record in baseball — yes, worse than the Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox. How could this happen to a 2025 Postseason team that kept its core intact and loaded up with pitchers? Well, Boston is underperforming across the board with a .669 OPS on a .226/.297/.372 slash line. That poor OBP, coupled with a 27.8% K% and the third-worst BB/K ratio (0.30), have created some real issues when it comes to finding consistent offense. The plate process looks plain bad right now, and a .146 ISO and respectable eight homers haven’t made up for it with game-changing swings. One significant issue? Trevor Story and Caleb Durbin — first and sixth on the team in at-bats — have respective OPS marks of .333 and .205. Youch. With the pitchers underperforming at a 4.71 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, plus the third-worst HR/9 (1.49), it’s easy to see where disaster has struck.
Tonight’s starting pitchers
The visiting Brewers bring RHP Brandon Woodruff to the mound as their starter. He threw five innings in his season debut, allowing two earned runs on four hits, two of which were home runs. He also struck out six batters without a walk. In 2025, he logged a 3.20 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with 83 punchouts in just 64.2 innings.
As for the Red Sox, they’ll deploy RHP Brayan Bello. He tossed 4.2 innings in his own season debut but was shelled for five earned runs on eight hits and a homer. He walked three batters and struck out two. Last season, he finished with a 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, plus 124 punchouts in 166.2 IP.
Brewers vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as -120 favorites on the road tonight. The Red Sox are listed at +100 odds to win outright with the run total set at eight between these sides.
Best Bet: MIL Brewers ML (-120)
Come on, man. We can take the hottest team in the sport for a straight win against the coldest one and still get decent odds? This should probably be a matchup that has the Brewers at -200 or longer (though I’m no oddsmaker). Woodruff was excellent when healthy last season and seemed like himself in his first start of 2026. Meanwhile, Bello had one heck of a day in a negative way when he took the mound for the first time this year. With how hot this Milwaukee lineup is at the moment and how “not” Boston’s own batters are, I’ll gladly take the Brewers to win outright here.
