Two and a half weeks ago, 68 teams entered March Madness with eyes on cutting down the nets. Tonight, only two remain, setting up a heavyweight battle for the national title.
No. 1 Michigan had made the title game seven times in its history before tonight, but only once have the Wolverines lifted the trophy, when Glen Rice helped Michigan to an 80-79 thriller over Seton Hall in 1988-89. UConn has made the national final only six times before, but the Huskies have won each of their previous appearances, most recently claiming back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024.
The game will tip off at 9 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, a four-hour drive from Michigan’s campus and a 13-hour drive from Connecticut’s. It’ll be carried by TBS and TNT.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action. Users in certain states can take advantage of any of the hundreds of prop bets available or combine them into a same-game parlay (SGP).
Even with the Huskies’ championship pedigree, the Wolverines are 6.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-290 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 145.5. Connecticut is +235 on the Moneyline.
Best Same-Game Parlay (SGP) for Michigan vs. UConn
- UConn +6.5
- Alex Karaban 3+ Three-Pointers Made
- Morez Johnson Jr. 8+ Rebounds
UConn +6.5
Each national title game is an individual event, and the Huskies’ 6-0 championship game record doesn’t necessarily mean that they should be guaranteed to win tonight. But experience matters, and Connecticut’s star player, Alex Karaban, clearly knows how to deal with the pressure, having started both the 2023 and 2024 title games. Dan Hurley also knows how to coach a team to a national title, and though Dusty May helped Florida Atlantic make a surprise run to the Final Four in 2022-23, he’s still a relatively inexperienced coach. Michigan has been the most convincing team all tournament and should win, but it’d be a surprise if the Huskies didn’t make it close.
Alex Karaban 3+ Three-Pointers Made
The Wolverines have had a dominant defense by almost any metric, allowing 1.3 fewer points per 100 possessions (matchup-adjusted) than any other school in the country. However, they’ve been more dominant in the post than the perimeter, as arguably their three best players are all forwards (Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., and Aday Mara). This season, Michigan ranks second nationally in two-point percentage defense but just 24th in three-point percentage defense, so Hurley might be best off running his offense through Karaban on the perimeter. Karaban hit at least three triples in each of the first three rounds before shooting just one-for-six from deep in the Elite Eight and one-for-seven in the semifinals. Though he’s slumped as of late, his heavy minutes load and overall pedigree suggests that he should continue to be trusted.
Morez Johnson Jr. 8+ Rebounds
Johnson had eight or more rebounds in each of the first three rounds of the tournament before falling short in the Elite Eight and national semifinals. In addition to his solid work on the defensive glass, he’s one of the better offensive rebounding threats in the country, ranking fifth in the Big Ten in offensive boards this season. He should get plenty of chances to clean up his own misses tonight, given that UConn ranks 11th in two-point percentage allowed. The Huskies also struggle on the defensive glass, ranking just 89th in defensive rebounding percentage, so Johnson can expect to do better than he did against Arizona (30th in defensive rebounding percentage).
