It all comes down to this as a couple of this season’s best teams go head-to-head on Sunday afternoon to be crowned the NCAA Champion.
After knocking off previously undefeated UConn in the semifinals, South Carolina is a small 3.5-point favorite over UCLA, with -185 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. UCLA is given +154 odds of getting the upset, while the total is set at O/U 127.5 points.
Ahead, I give my prediction and pick for the national championship game between UCLA and South Carolina.
UCLA vs. South Carolina prediction, pick
Both of these teams have been some of the best defensive units this season, and UCLA and South Carolina have each put that on display throughout the tournament. UCLA ranks 21st in the league allowing just 56.9 points a game while the Gamecocks are not far behind, giving up 57.5 points a game for 26th nationally.
The Gamecocks and Bruins also boast a pair of the top offenses in the country this season, each ranking in the top 10. South Carolina ranks third in nation averaging 87.1 points a game while UCLA is seventh, scoring 84.9 points. Despite that, each team’s defenses have taken center stage in the tournament, with neither team giving up more than 68 points in a game.
South Carolina has allowed just 52.6 points a game in the NCAA Tournament, and it has had a couple of its best defensive outputs these last two games. In the Elite Eight against TCU, the Gamecocks held the ‘Frogs to 52 points on 33% shooting. They followed that up with an even better showing against UConn in the Final Four, giving up just 48 points on 31% shooting to a team that is second nationally averaging 87.9 points a game. South Carolina also kept UConn star Sarah Strong to just 12 points and outrebounded the Huskies 47-32.
The Bruins have also been locking it down defensively this tournament, giving up 53.8 points a game. They haven’t let up recently either, with a defensive clinic in the Final Four needed for them to make it past Texas. Though UCLA only scored 51 points against the Longhorns, it held Texas to just 44. The Bruins also kept Texas’ shooters in check, as they went 31% from the field and 22% from three, and just one reached double-figures, with leading scorer Madison Booker being held to six points. The game prior, UCLA had another strong performance, giving up 58 points on 39% shooting and 8% from three against Duke in the Elite Eight.
UCLA vs. South Carolina Best Bet
Looking at the seasons these two have had, it appears this game should be headed for another high-scoring affair. However, the way both of these two have been playing lately, defense seems to be more the name of the game.
UCLA had a tough time in its matchup with Texas, turning the ball over 23 times while shooting it at a 41% clip to score 51 points, and things don’t get much easier against South Carolina. The Gamecocks fared a bit better against the sport’s top defense this season in UConn, putting up 62 on 38% shooting, but the Bruins have also been locking it down lately as well.
With the Gamecocks’ experience in national championship games, this being their fourth title game in the last five years, and UCLA’s recent turnover issues, my lean is on South Carolina covering the spread. However, with both teams playing so strong on defense lately, my best bet is to take the under at 127.5 points to keep this a lower-scoring game, just as the Final Four games were.
