It’s another full afternoon of action in Major League Baseball this Sunday, with six games on the scoreboard starting at 4:00 p.m. ET or later. The Guardians and Cubs are finishing their doubleheader as one of the games, while the Cardinals and Tigers are ready to face off on Sunday Night Baseball on Peacock. Let’s take a look at dozen teams on the board and break down the matchups, environments and current form of a few players who make strong options for home run props for the latter half of the day this Sunday on DraftKings Sportsbook.
By their nature, home run props are long-shot plays, but when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the best power hitters are long-shot plays to homer on any single day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s later matchups, which are all rising young hitters: Drake Baldwin, Max Muncy and JJ Wetherholt.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Drake Baldwin 1+ Home Run (+273)
The 25-year-old lefty has already smashed three homers in his first nine games of the season, going 9-for-35 (.257) with a 46.9% hard-hit rate and 15.6% barrel rate. He has five barrels in the season and has at least one hard-hit ball in each of his nine games. His xwOBA is .467, ans his xSLG is .715, indicating that his quality of contact should yield even better results over time. Baldwin had another homer stolen by Denzel Clarke earlier this week as well, but his third blast of the year came in Atlanta on Tuesday.
Baldwin is facing righty Brandon Pfaadt at offense-friendly Chase Field in Arizona. Baldwin is 3-for-5 against Pfaadt in their past meetings, and last year, Pfaadt allowed 14 of his 26 homers to lefties like Baldwin. In his first start of the season Pfaadt didn’t give up a homer but did surrender five runs on six hits in a no-decision against Detroit.
Max Muncy 1+ Home Run (+580)
The Athletics’ version of Max Muncy is another young hitter who is making great contact in the ealry going this season. The 23-year-old hit his second homer of the year on Friday
Muncy hit nine homers in 63 games last year in the majors and hit five homers in 21 games this spring training. In his first eight games this season, Muncy is hitting .300 with an impressive 72.2% hard-hit rate, along with a 22.2% barrel rate.
He’ll be at home at Sutter Health Park this afternoon facing Astros starting Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers looked great in his first start of the season, but last year he gave up 10 homers in 16 games. Righties hit seven of those homers on their way to a .303 batting average and .420 wOBA, while McCullers held lefties more in check.
JJ Wetherholt 1+ Home Run (+900)
In a long-shot play to roll with in the final game of the night, JJ Wetherholt is another 23-year-old looking to make a splash and establish himself as one of the best young hitters in the game. He and the Cardinals will take on Keider Montero of the Tigers. The weather in Detroit will be chilly, but the wind will be blowing out to left field. Wetherholt hit his first homer of the year on Opening Day, going yard against Drew Rasmussen of the Rays.
Wetherholt has hit leadoff in each of his starts this year, going 8-for-29 (.276) with four walks and two stolen bases to go with his home run. He has a 43.5% hard-hit rate and has done a great job putting the ball in play. Lefties like Wetherholt have had more home run success against Montero in the past with 10 of the 16 homers he allowed last season along with a .384 wOBA compared to a .294 wOBA for righties.
Getting any homer in the weather in Detroit could be tough in these conditions, but Wetherholt has the power and upside to make it happen. He is a great value at 9:1 as a longshot option on Sunday night’s card.
