This Sunday slate has real shape to it. Phillies-Rockies puts the most obvious power environment on the board at Coors, Marlins-Yankees brings the short-porch threat in the Bronx, Padres-Red Sox drops big bats into Fenway, and Dodgers-Nationals gives you another game with top-end homer talent all over it. It is the kind of full-board day where park, handedness, and one mistake matter more than any generic season-long label.
That is what makes the home run board fun today. A few arms can settle a game down, but a larger group of starters comes in with real contact risk, which means this slate is less about waiting for a team to pile up offense and more about identifying the hitters most likely to punish one bad pitch.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+180)
This is the cleanest power profile on the slate, and it’s got the benefit of plus-plus shape on Sunday, too. Schwarber has three home runs in just 20 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, good for a 1.500 OPS and a .714 isolated power figure that immediately tells you what kind of contact he’s making. That’s a continuation of last year’s campaign. He hit 56 home runs in 2025 and has cleared 40+ in three of the last four seasons, living almost entirely on pulled air contact and mistake punishment.
We all know Coors Field amplifies fly balls into extra-base damage, and Schwarber’s profile—elevated launch angle, top-tier pull rate, and a 25.0% HR/FB early this season—translates directly into that altitude boost. Colorado pitching does not suppress that. This is a staff that allows contact, and Schwarber needs one mistake.
The key here is efficiency of damage. Schwarber has four extra-base hits in 14 at-bats against righties, meaning nearly 30% of his contact is going for impact. In this park, against this pitching quality, one elevated fastball is enough. This is a Sunday afternoon bet on a hitter whose entire offensive identity is built to cash this exact prop.
Ben Rice to hit a home run (+270)
This is where price and profile meet in a way the market has not fully corrected for yet. Rice is producing elite underlying contact. He’s sitting on a 1.357 OPS early in the season, which places him among the top power-producing bats in baseball right now, and that’s being driven by real extra-base frequency, not BABIP noise.
The split is what matters. Rice has already shown the ability to punish right-handed pitching, with two home runs and multiple extra-base hits in a small but telling early sample. More importantly, his approach supports it—he’s walking at a near-20% clip while still driving the ball, which means he is seeing pitches to hit and not expanding out of the zone. That combination—patience plus lift—is what creates repeatable home run paths.
Now plug in the matchup. Chris Paddack is a strike-thrower who lives in the zone, and Rice is a hitter who does his damage on pitches he can lift to the pull side. That’s the exact collision you want. This is about one clean swing against a pitcher who will give him something to hit.
At +303, you are paying for Rice to convert one of the few mistakes he is likely to see. Given the contact quality and plate discipline profile, that’s a bet worth making.
Wilyer Abreu to hit a home run (+435)
There’s nothing more every single Red Sox batter wants to do than go bridge on Walker Buehler today. Abreu is sitting on a 1.215 OPS to start the season with a .423 isolated power mark, which immediately flags him as one of the most dangerous contact hitters in the early sample. This is damage per swing.
The split is critical. Abreu has already taken right-handed pitching deep three times this year and is hitting over .380 in those matchups, meaning he is consistently winning at-bats against that handedness. That matters here because the matchup lines up cleanly against a right-hander who has already shown early-season vulnerability.
What separates Abreu from other longshots on this board is the quality of contact density. He is stacking hard contact across multiple swing profiles. His slugging sits over .800, which means when he connects, it is extra-base authority.
At Fenway, even in today’s cold, that drives results. The park rewards pulled fly balls and line drives with carry, especially for left-handed hitters who can turn on velocity. Abreu fits that perfectly.
At +433, the price is asking him to be one of several viable power outcomes. Given the early power output, the handedness split, and the contact quality, he absolutely belongs in that group.
