All roads end here: the Final Four. The first of two matchup in Indianapolis pits #3 Illinois (28-8, 15-5) against #2 UConn (33-5, 17-3), with a date to the title game up for grabs. The Fighting Illini have surpassed all expectations, reaching this point for the first time in nine seasons under head coach Brad Underwood. It’s a different story for the Huskies, a perennial contender under Dan Hurley. Which of these two programs has the edge on Saturday?
Illinois enters as 1.5-point favorites (-115) over UConn. The total is set at 139.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip off is scheduled for 6:09 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for today’s game between the Huskies and the Fighting Illini.
UConn vs. Illinois prediction, preview
A dramatic Braylon Mullins buzzer-beater on Sunday sent Connecticut to its third Final Four in four seasons. However, it was Tarris Reed that carried this group against Duke. The big man put up 26 points, nine rebounds, three assists and four blocks over 32 minutes. Surprisingly, UConn eked out a win even as team leader Alex Karaban struggled (5 points on 2-of-10 shooting). The two-time champion is almost guaranteed a better performance on Saturday night.
Lost in the shuffle of their miraculous victory, the Huskies struggled mightily from beyond the arc last weekend. The team only knocked down five of their 23 attempts from three-point range (21.7%) against Duke. On the year, UConn only ranks 143rd in three-point percentage (34.6%). Guards Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. have struggled throughout most of the NCAA Tournament. One of them, if not both, will be needed if Connecticut is going to earn a win. Illinois wields the nation’s tallest average height (80.0″); paint points could be more difficult than usual in this one.
Speaking of the Illini, few expected this group to move past the Sweet 16. However, a 65-55 upset of Houston, last season’s runner-up, shouldn’t have come as a major surprise. That was followed up by a 12-point triumph against Big Ten rival Iowa in the Elite Eight. Illinois has been an analytical darling all season; six of its eight losses have been by four or fewer points. Per KenPom, the Fighting Illini rank fourth in college basketball with a +34.32 net rating. They also own the nation’s top adjusted offensive efficiency (131.7).
Unlike UConn, there hasn’t been one name carrying this offense during March Madness. In the back court, leading scorer Keaton Wagler (17.9 PPG) has been an absolute force. Fellow guard Kylan Boswell went a combined 0-for-7 from the field vs. Iowa and Houston. Much like Karaban, I’d expect a better showing from the senior tonight. Andrej Stojakovic is one of the more consistent shooters in college basketball. The wing has tallied 16+ points in 16 of his 33 appearances.
As previously mentioned, the biggest advantage for Illinois is its height. 6’9″ David Mirkovic is one of the sport’s more underrated big men. The freshman is averaging 13.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per game to go with 49/38/76 shooting splits. Twin seven-footers Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic have the ability to alter shots and knock down three-pointers as well.
UConn vs. Illinois pick, best bet
When these teams last met, UConn controlled the game en route to a 74-61 win. However, I’m not expecting lightning to strike twice tonight. Illinois shot at a ghastly 31.7% rate in that one; a similar showing feels almost impossible. Connecticut’s impressive 19-point comeback on Sunday overshadows a team that flirted with disaster against Duke and Michigan State. In comparison, the bigger, better shooting Illini have looked more impressive thus far. With the public supporting the Huskies (64% of all moneyline bets), I’ll back the favorites on Saturday.
Best Bet: Illinois ML (-130)
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